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← Back to GamesNov 10, 2018Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 22.4

Home Win Probability

Alabama 91%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 10, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
00000
AlabamaAlabama
1470324

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-021-024-0
AlabamaMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAALAMSMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSTD973ydPUNT37ydTD1383ydPUNT36ydPUNT936ydPUNT514ydTO433ydPUNT3-13ydTO3-11ydTD327ydDOWNS951ydPUNT615ydTO513ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT519ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-8ydDOWNS524ydPUNT30ydDOWNS517ydFG611ydPUNT39ydDOWNS1054ydUncategorized36yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Alabama
StatisticMississippi StateAlabama
Passing11-2017-27
Pass Yards125163
Rush Yards43142
Total Yards168305
Turnovers12
3rd Down1-134-12
Penalties7-500-0
Possession26:0233:54

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
11/20, 125 YDS
rushing
Kylin Hill
7 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Deddrick Thomas
2 REC, 25 YDS
defense
Alabama
passing
Tua Tagovailoa
14/21, 164 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Josh Jacobs
20 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Irv Smith Jr.
5 REC, 70 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tua Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Alab 31

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.59

Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the MisSt 48

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.43

Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.05

Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.78

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 25 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Damien Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.88

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.58

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 21 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 42

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Tua Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Alab 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.50

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Josh Jacobs run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 25

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.38

Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Tua Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.32

Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24

2nd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 19

3rd & 16Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.26

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 12 yds to the MisSt 31

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 31

1st & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.28

Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.79

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.11

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.15

Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the MisSt 38

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mike Bernier punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 1

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 8

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

3rd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.38

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 15

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 38

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Rayford) to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Najee Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 2Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -4.62

Tua Tagovailoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 29 Tua Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by MisSt Braxton Hoyett

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31

2nd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.90

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by LaBryan Ray and Raekwon Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 22

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17

3rd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 42

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 42

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs III

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.82

Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 31

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.94

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 15 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 14 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.29

Kylin Hill run for 38 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 35

2nd & 12Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.34

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 23 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Alab 12

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 yds

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 11 yds to the Alab 1 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Deddrick Thomas) to the Alab 11

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the Alab 16

3rd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.35

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jared Mayden for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 24

4th & 22Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Jace Christmann 41 yd FG MISSED

0th & 22End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.68

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Alab 46

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Alab 31

2nd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.73

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 13 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45

2nd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.88

Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 35

3rd & 19Pass Interception Return-3 ydsPPA +0.17

Tua Tagovailoa pass intercepted Willie Gay Jr. return for 3 yds to the Alab 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 36

2nd & 6Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.25

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Dylan Moses for a loss of 12 yards to the Alab 48

3rd & 18Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Dontea Jones for 11 yds to the Alab 37

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Greg Eiland) to the Alab 42

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Alab 15

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the Alab 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mike Bernier punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 32

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 29 yds, downed at the Alab 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 30

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.40

Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Cameron Dantzler for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 21

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Mike Bernier punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.73

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.87

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nick Fitzgerald

2nd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the Alab 41

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 40

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.39

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen Waddle

3rd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.69

Mac Jones pass complete to Josh Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mike Bernier punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 25

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.68

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 37

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the MisSt 42

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 5 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.04

Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Damien Harris

4th & 14Field Goal Good+49 ydsPPA +1.67

Joseph Bulovas 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 28

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 28

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 45

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 47

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.48

Josh Jacobs run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Josh Jacobs run for 12 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Josh Jacobs run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.75

Josh Jacobs run for 17 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the MisSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Damien Harris run for no gain to the MisSt 2

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -4.15

Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.12

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 1

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.04

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 8

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
18 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
0%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
43%
30 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
45%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play