Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 20, 2018Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 6.4

Home Win Probability

LSU 59%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Oct 20, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
30003
LSULSU
736319

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-313-316-319-3
LSUMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSULSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSTO30ydTD33ydFG773ydPUNT39ydPUNT38ydPUNT30ydTO36ydTO413ydPUNT617ydPUNT33ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT524ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT35ydEND1564ydFG1055ydDOWNS830ydFG944ydPUNT520ydFG1051ydPUNT34ydPUNT419ydTO446ydPUNT522ydTO951yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and LSU
StatisticMississippi StateLSU
Passing8-2416-28
Pass Yards59129
Rush Yards201111
Total Yards260240
Turnovers41
3rd Down2-147-18
Penalties5-455-53
Possession28:2431:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
8/24, 59 YDS, 4 INT
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
23 CAR, 131 YDS
receiving
Deddrick Thomas
1 REC, 15 YDS
defense
LSU
passing
Joe Burrow
16/28, 129 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nick Brossette
17 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Dee Anderson
3 REC, 29 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 20

1st & 15Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 15

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 17

2nd & 18Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 8 yds to the MisSt 25

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return-31 ydsPPA +0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Michael Divinity Jr. return for 31 yds to the MisSt 3

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Nick Brossette run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Tracy KICK)

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +1.89

Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5

2nd & 5Penalty+3 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Green, Farrod, PENALTY LSU offside (Lawrence, Rashard) 3 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY.

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 ydsPPA -1.15

Jace Christmann 19 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 9 yds to the LSU 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 16

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 4 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 4Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the MisSt 24

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.78

Nick Brossette run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 27

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.49

Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the MisSt 18

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-1 ydsPPA -4.48

Joe Burrow pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 1

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 43

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 43

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 2 yds to the LSU 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, downed at the MisSt 7

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.88

Joe Burrow sacked by Johnathan Abram for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 44

3rd & 13Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.68

Joe Burrow sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 36

4th & 21Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Sh'mar Kilby-Lane) to the LSU 41

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 23

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 20

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Tory Carter

3rd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.11

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18

4th & 12Punt+4 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.40

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 19 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Burrow run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.42

Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 11 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.42

Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 9 yds to the MisSt 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.15

Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the MisSt 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 ydsPPA -0.79

Cole Tracy 25 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Nick Brossette run for 12 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin Jefferson

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.15

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Dillon, Derrick, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Abram, Johnathan) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the MisSt 20

4th & 3Field Goal Good+38 ydsPPA -0.46

Cole Tracy 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the LSU 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 49

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

Hill, Kylin rush for 4 yards to the LSU45, PENALTY LSU offside (Lawrence, Rashard) 5 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the LSU 44

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the LSU 37

4th & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.06

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 45

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Derrick Dillon run for no gain to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Montez Sweat) to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the MisSt 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.25

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 11 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 16

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11

4th & 3Field Goal Good+29 ydsPPA -0.87

Cole Tracy 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 28 yds, downed at the LSU 27

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 33

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.63

Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the LSU 41

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 47

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.53

Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.78

Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 20 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Joe Burrow run for no gain to the MisSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

4th & 7Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA +0.05

Cole Tracy 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 29

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 4 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.44

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 6 yds to the LSU 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 1

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 6

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass pass intended for Jackson, Jesse intercepted by Fulton, Kristian at the MISSSTATE27, Fulton, Kristian return 14 yards to the MISSSTATE13, PENALTY LSU personal foul (White, Devin) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. Devin White ejected for targeting.

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (John Battle & Kristian Fulton for 30 yards ) to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 38

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.74

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted John Battle return for no gain to the LSU 10

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 19

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.19

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 29

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 31

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 32

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.20

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for 12 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Nick Gibson

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 5

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
36%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
20%
5 plays
17%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
31%
29 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
21%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
44%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays