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← Back to GamesOct 6, 2018Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Auburn by 1.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 47%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Oct 6, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AuburnAuburn
30339
Mississippi StateMississippi State
3103723

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-36-313-316-316-616-923-9
Mississippi StateAuburn

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSMSMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSPUNT36ydTO34ydPUNT3-3ydTO618ydFG49ydFG967ydMISS1142ydFG739ydTO420ydTO728ydEND836ydFG1360ydFG655ydPUNT36ydTO670ydDOWNS638ydFG1052ydMISS761ydDOWNS613ydTD870ydDOWNS1035ydUncategorized1-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Auburn and Mississippi State
StatisticAuburnMississippi State
Passing19-389-17
Pass Yards21469
Rush Yards90349
Total Yards304418
Turnovers21
3rd Down3-147-17
Penalties2-102-37
Possession18:0741:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Auburn
passing
Jarrett Stidham
19/38, 214 YDS
rushing
JaTarvious Whitlow
8 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Ryan Davis
8 REC, 91 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
9/17, 69 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
28 CAR, 195 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Farrod Green
2 REC, 23 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 28

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Aub 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Arryn Siposs punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+5 yds

Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 5 yds to the Aub 32 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 34

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 29

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Arryn Siposs punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 27

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return-12 ydsPPA -0.95

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Jeremiah Dinson return for 12 yds to the MisSt 39

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Kam Martin run for no gain to the MisSt 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Tucker Brown for 9 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Asa Martin run for no gain to the MisSt 30

4th & 1Field Goal Good+47 ydsPPA +0.03

Anders Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.80

Nick Fitzgerald run for 29 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 15

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.47

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 16

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 8

4th & 4Field Goal Good+25 ydsPPA -0.91

Jace Christmann 25 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 14 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 6 yds to the Aub 46

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to JaTarvious Whitlow for 3 yds to the MisSt 35

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.53

Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Shaun Shivers run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25

3rd & 1Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.16

Kam Martin run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 32

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Anders Carlson 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.43

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 23 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+47 ydsPPA +0.79

Jace Christmann 47 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 12 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 4 yds to the Aub 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 45

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Arryn Siposs punt for 49 yds , Keith Mixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 6 Keith Mixon fumbled, recovered by MisSt

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.46

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.10

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 34

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.28

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for no gain to the MisSt 34

4th & 10Punt+3 yds

Tucker Day punt for 33 yds , Ryan Davis returns for 3 yds to the Aub 36 Ryan Davis fumbled, recovered by MisSt

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.38

Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 18

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the Aub 12

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 4 yds to the Aub 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.57

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Aub 38

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 38

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 3 yds to the Aub 20

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 15

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 15

4th & 2Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.79

Jace Christmann 32 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.17

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 42 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.29

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 13 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the MisSt 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 ydsPPA +0.20

Anders Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Davis at the Aub 30

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.45

Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 23 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, recovered by Aub

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.37

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to John Shenker for 26 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Malik Miller for 1 yd to the MisSt 42

3rd & 1Rush+42 yds

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 42 yds JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, recovered by MisSt

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.53

Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 46

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 47

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds to the Aub 41

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.95

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.18

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 1 yd to the MisSt 45

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.76

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 22 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.61

Anthony Schwartz run for 17 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 ydsPPA -0.87

Anders Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.23

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 10 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+39 ydsPPA +2.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for 39 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 18

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 14

4th & 3Blocked Field Goal+17 yds

Jace Christmann 31 yd FG BLOCKED for a 1ST down blocked by Marlon Davidson for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Daniel Thomas return for 32 yds to the MisSt 0 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.39

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.23

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Kylin Hill run for 17 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Aub 44

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.76

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 46

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.43

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 35

2nd & 4Penalty+5 yds

AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 28

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Aub 21

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.78

Nick Fitzgerald 21 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.85

Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 27

2nd & 18Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 14 yds to the Aub 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.82

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 5 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.53

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 24 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 11 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.85

Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 30

4th & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.28

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 26

Situational Analysis

Auburn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
39%
23 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
59%
32 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
88%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play