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← Back to GamesSep 29, 2018Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 13

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 79%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 29, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
FloridaFlorida
037313
Mississippi StateMississippi State
33006

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-03-36-36-106-13
Mississippi StateFlorida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOMSFLOPUNT37ydPUNT617ydFG1259ydFG1568ydFG1367ydPUNT616ydDOWNS521ydTO520ydPUNT33ydTD673ydPUNT829ydPUNT940ydPUNT36ydPUNT423ydPUNT31ydFG1036ydPUNT31ydPUNT523ydDOWNS733ydUncategorized2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida and Mississippi State
StatisticFloridaMississippi State
Passing23-3211-26
Pass Yards23998
Rush Yards118104
Total Yards357202
Turnovers10
3rd Down4-132-12
Penalties11-902-15
Possession33:4726:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida
passing
Feleipe Franks
22/31, 219 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Lamical Perine
10 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Josh Hammond
3 REC, 47 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
11/26, 98 YDS
rushing
Kylin Hill
9 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Osirus Mitchell
3 REC, 35 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 31

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 26

1st & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.18

Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the Fla 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the MisSt 48

1st & 15Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.55

Feleipe Franks sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 42

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Jordan Scarlett

3rd & 25Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 48

4th & 19Punt+28 yds

Tommy Townsend punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MISSSTATE 9 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Dean III) to the MisSt 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Fla 45

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 29

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Fla 24

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 17

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Fla 17

4th & 2Field Goal Good+34 ydsPPA -0.70

Jace Christmann 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the Fla 5

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 10

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 9 yds to the Fla 19

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.50

Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.45

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 11 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kadarius Toney run for 4 yds to the Fla 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.65

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.30

Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.42

Kadarius Toney run for 16 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the MisSt 18

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the MisSt 23

3rd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

4th & 11Field Goal Good+39 ydsPPA +0.48

Evan McPherson 39 yd FG GOOD

4th & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Evan McPherson kickoff for 60 yds , Brian Cole return for 16 yds to the MISSSTATE 21 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stephen Adegoke) to the MisSt 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 11

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.12

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin Williams

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.79

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.78

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 32

2nd & 3Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.39

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by CJ Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 35

3rd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.41

Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Fla 22

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Fla 17

3rd & 3Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.30

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 22

4th & 8Field Goal Good+39 ydsPPA +0.16

Jace Christmann 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 18 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 39

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Tommy Townsend punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.55

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 8 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 26

2nd & 7Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 15

3rd & 18Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.48

Aeris Williams run for 17 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.70

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyree Campbell) to the Fla 33

1st & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 9 yds to the Fla 42

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 45

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return-7 ydsPPA -0.84

Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 3 yds to the Fla 47

4th & 7Punt+11 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 31 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 11 yds to the Fla 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds to the Fla 36

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.40

Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.55

Lamical Perine run for 22 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 16 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Kadarius Toney pass complete to Moral Stephens for 20 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 42

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 11 yds to the Fla 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.73

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 10 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Fla 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 1 yd to the Fla 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.76

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 9 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Tommy Townsend) to the 50 yard line

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tommy Townsend punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt-2 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 34 yds , Freddie Swain returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.41

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 20 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tommy Townsend punt for 28 yds, downed at the MisSt 6

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.41

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Vosean Joseph for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 2

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

3rd & 14Penalty+5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jabari Zuniga) to the MisSt 7

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the MisSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 6 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.28

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the MisSt 13

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.53

Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie Swain

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the MisSt 4

4th & 2Field Goal Good+21 ydsPPA -1.11

Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 42

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.87

Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 48 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Fla Feleipe Franks

2nd & 14Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 6 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh Hammond

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tommy Townsend punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 12

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.58

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 6

2nd & 16Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.57

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Vosean Joseph) to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.48

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.60

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Donovan Stiner for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 45

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49

Situational Analysis

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
26 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
44%
9 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
24 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays