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← Back to GamesSep 22, 2018Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 9.4

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 22%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 22, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
07007
KentuckyKentucky
0771428

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-714-728-7
KentuckyMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENPUNT517ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT46ydPUNT312ydMISS944ydTD1580ydPUNT510ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT36ydTD652ydEND425ydPUNT68ydTD1192ydPUNT625ydTO21ydPUNT7-5ydPUNT4-3ydTO3-4ydTD136ydDOWNS414ydTD540ydPUNT3-5ydUncategorized739yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Kentucky
StatisticMississippi StateKentucky
Passing16-328-14
Pass Yards15071
Rush Yards56229
Total Yards206300
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-152-9
Penalties16-1394-37
Possession29:0330:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
16/32, 150 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Aeris Williams
8 CAR, 22 YDS
receiving
Osirus Mitchell
6 REC, 65 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Terry Wilson
8/14, 71 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Benny Snell Jr.
25 CAR, 165 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Dorian Baker
1 REC, 23 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.96

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the MisSt 12

1st & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 14Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, downed at the Kent 44

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.43

Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 5Rush-13 ydsPPA -3.17

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 42

2nd & 18Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.84

Terry Wilson sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 26Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.65

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 14 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 19

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 12Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 38

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Kent 38

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 40

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Wilson, Terry pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer 15 yards to the MISSSTATE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Terry Wilson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.22

Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 36

1st & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 27

3rd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Miles Butler 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 12 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Kent 39

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 39

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.62

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the Kent 30

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Kent 18

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 23

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 28

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 26

3rd & 13Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 24 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Kent 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Kent 23

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.36

Asim Rose run for 14 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Asim Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 5Sack-14 ydsPPA -1.30

Terry Wilson sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 14 yards to the Kent 28

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 21 yds, downed at the Kent 45

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 44

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 46 yds , Keith Mixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 10

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 5

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 7

3rd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 16

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds, downed at the Kent 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the MisSt 47

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.40

Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.92

Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.45

Terry Wilson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.62

Terry Wilson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 23 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 21 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 46

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.69

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 7 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 33

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 59 yds, downed at the Kent 8

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 4 yds to the Kent 34

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.29

Benny Snell Jr. run for 20 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.93

Terry Wilson pass incomplete for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.45

Terry Wilson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 23 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.44

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 31 yds, downed at the Kent 19

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 20

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.11

Terry Wilson pass intercepted Brian Cole return for no gain to the Kent 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 45

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.97

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.35

Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.95

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 29

2nd & 14Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 39

2nd & 24Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.63

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Calvin Taylor Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 49

3rd & 34Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 46

3rd & 39Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 39Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by David Bouvier at the Kent 14

1st & 10Penalty-7 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the Kent 7

1st & 17Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.17

Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 2

2nd & 22Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Kent 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 20

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 19

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.22

Terry Wilson sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 11

4th & 16Punt+3 yds

Max Duffy punt for 43 yds , Keith Mixon returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 49

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 49

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.08

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 45

3rd & 14Pass Interception Return-35 ydsPPA -0.35

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tyrell Ajian return for 35 yds to the MisSt 36

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.01

Benny Snell Jr. run for 36 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 6 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd to the MisSt 39

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Benny Snell Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 17

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+29 yds

Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENTUCKY 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 46

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41

4th & 5Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.33

Asim Rose run for 13 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 7

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

TEAM run for no gain to the MisSt 7

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
21 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
0%
7 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
52%
23 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
63%
8 plays
0%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play