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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2017Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Colorado State by 7.3

Home Win Probability

Colorado State 72%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 28, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
72131445
Colorado StateColorado State
1477028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-1421-1421-2828-2828-3128-3828-45
Colorado StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSTD1175ydTD496ydTO724ydTD155ydTD1375ydTD775ydTD575ydTD10ydTD00ydTO1147ydEND513ydTD963ydFG1772ydPUNT36ydTD575ydPUNT530ydTD1398ydTO1261ydPUNT3-5ydEND110yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Colorado State
StatisticAir ForceColorado State
Passing2-417-31
Pass Yards64269
Rush Yards413166
Total Yards477435
Turnovers13
3rd Down8-136-10
Penalties4-284-40
Possession41:3818:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Arion Worthman
2/4, 64 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Arion Worthman
25 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ryan Reffitt
1 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Colorado State
passing
Nick Stevens
17/31, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Dalyn Dawkins
13 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Michael Gallup
7 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.54

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the ColSt 23

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13 Timothy McVey

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.15

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jacob Stafford run for 6 yds to the ColSt 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Nick Stevens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Stevens pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.18

Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 20 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.15

Dalyn Dawkins run for 76 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Ronald Cleveland run for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.43

Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the ColSt 49

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.54

Nolan Eriksen run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 49

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return-5 ydsPPA -1.05

Arion Worthman pass intercepted Anthony Hawkins return for 5 yds to the ColSt 45

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.28

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 55 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.21

Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.64

Nolan Eriksen run for 18 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jacob Stafford run for 7 yds to the ColSt 25

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.07

Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Kiel Robinson) to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Taven Birdow run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.94

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 36 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.49

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 17 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the AFA 18

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Kyle Floyd) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the AFA 41

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +5.35

Jacob Stafford run for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown-30 ydsPPA -7.92

Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Shaquille Vereen return for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 3Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 8

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup

3rd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.55

Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 18 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 41

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 48

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.57

Nick Stevens run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Nick Stevens run for no gain to the AFA 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the AFA 18

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

DAWKINS, D. rush for 18 yards to the AF0, clock 02:06, PENALTY CSU holding (TAYLOR, J.) 10 yards to the AF28, NO PLAY.

2nd & 18Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.07

Nick Stevens pass intercepted James Jones return for no gain to the AFA 10

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.58

Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 25

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 23

0th & 12End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 37

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.57

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 19 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.43

Dalyn Dawkins run for 17 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the AFA 18

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 1 yd to the AFA 17

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Nick Stevens run for 6 yds to the AFA 11

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.57

Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Taven Birdow run for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.21

Jacob Stafford run for 8 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Jacob Stafford run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Arion Worthman run for 12 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the ColSt 18

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the ColSt 6

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Timothy McVey run for no gain to the ColSt 6

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the ColSt 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

Luke Strebel 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.99

Nick Stevens sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 15

2nd & 17Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.52

Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 13 yds to the ColSt 28

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren Jackson

4th & 4Punt+6 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 25 , Ronald Cleveland returns for 6 yds to the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Arion Worthman pass complete to Nolan Eriksen for 8 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +4.11

Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.36

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Nick Stevens pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds, downed at the AFA 2

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.25

Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 2 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion Worthman

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 7

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVey

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.32

Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.74

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Taven Birdow run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.94

Nolan Eriksen run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Richard King) to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Ernest McQuade) to the ColSt 43

1st & 15Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.26

Jacob Stafford run for 19 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.48

Timothy McVey run for 17 yds to the ColSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Arion Worthman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Marcus Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Nick Stevens pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 6 yds to the ColSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.56

Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 11 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Marcus Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.91

Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton Fackrell

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.68

Nick Stevens run for 8 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Nick Stevens pass incomplete

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.63

Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.24

Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 15 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.45

Nick Stevens pass intercepted, touchback. Kyle Floyd return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 19

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.27

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 17

3rd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.08

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 69 yds, downed at the ColSt 16

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
34 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
56%
9 plays
40%
5 plays
75%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
27 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
56%
9 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays