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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2017Week 8
UCFUCF
31
-Final
21
NavyNavy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 3

Home Win Probability

Navy 59%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 21, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
7710731
NavyNavy
077721

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-77-1414-2114-2421-2421-31
NavyUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFNAVUCFTD1064ydPUNT36ydPUNT616ydPUNT39ydDOWNS640ydPUNT621ydPUNT523ydTD1292ydTD535ydTO936ydMISS561ydTD585ydTD179ydDOWNS1038ydFG1245ydTD1075ydTO631ydTO611ydTD754ydDOWNS49ydPUNT35ydTO517ydEND2-10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and Navy
StatisticUCFNavy
Passing16-245-14
Pass Yards236171
Rush Yards247248
Total Yards483419
Turnovers13
3rd Down8-139-17
Penalties7-554-40
Possession26:0133:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
McKenzie Milton
15/23, 233 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Adrian Killins Jr.
15 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Dredrick Snelson
3 REC, 72 YDS
defense
Navy
passing
Zach Abey
2/4, 115 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Zach Abey
25 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Malcolm Perry
1 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Bennett Moehring kickoff for 54 yds , Mike Hughes return for 25 yds to the UCF 36

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, delay of game (McKenzie Milton) to the UCF 31

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson

3rd & 12Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +4.14

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 35 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.56

McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.94

McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Navy 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Matthew Wright kickoff for 64 yds , Malcolm Perry return for 33 yds to the Navy 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 34

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Anthony Gargiulo run for no gain to the Navy 34

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 40

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Owen White punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 31

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Taj McGowan run for 17 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.04

Taj McGowan run for 17 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Taj McGowan run for 8 yds to the Navy 27 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Tre'Quan Smith) to the Navy 37

2nd & 12Penalty-10 yds

SMITH, Tre'Quan rush for 1 yard to the NAVY36 (WOOTEN, Tyris), PENALTY UCF illegal block (DAVIS, Gabriel) 10 yards to the NAVY47, NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 48

3rd & 23Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.47

McKenzie Milton sacked by Josh Webb for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 47

4th & 28Punt0 yds

Mac Loudermilk punt for 42 yds, downed at the Navy 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 11

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 12

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.14

Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 20

4th & 1Punt+11 yds

Owen White punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 43 , Mike Hughes returns for 11 yds to the Navy 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.65

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 18 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.17

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 13 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Navy 3

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Otis Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 4

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Navy 3

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.18

Taj McGowan run for no gain to the Navy 3

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 8

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.41

Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 22

2nd & 6Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.76

Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the Navy 24 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Craig Scott) to the Navy 14

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 16

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 24

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Owen White punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mike Hughes at the UCF 35

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

McKenzie Milton run for 11 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KILLINS, JR., Adrian rush for 4 yards to the 50 yardline (SAYLES, Tyler), PENALTY UCF illegal formation 5 yards to the UCF41, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.27

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 6Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.94

Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the Navy 45

3rd & 16Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Noah Vedral pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 3 yds to the Navy 42

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Mac Loudermilk punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 10

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the Navy 14

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Darryl Bonner run for 7 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 26

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.45

Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Mike Martin run for 2 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Zach Abey pass incomplete to Mike Martin, broken up by Joey Connors

3rd & 8Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +4.04

Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 40 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.16

Zach Abey run for 12 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the UCF 6

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.24

Zach Abey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+58 yds

Bennett Moehring kickoff for 58 yds , Mike Hughes return for 58 yds to the Navy 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the Navy 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the Navy 27

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 32

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.39

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 15 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.19

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 2 yds to the Navy 15

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.77

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Zach Abey run for 14 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the UCF 46

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the UCF 44

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 30

3rd & 4Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.74

Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the UCF 29 NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Carmona) to the UCF 39

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return-9 ydsPPA -1.67

Zach Abey pass intercepted Kyle Gibson return for 9 yds to the UCF 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.08

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 41 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Gabriel Davis

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick Snelson, broken up by Brandon Jones

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.05

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 20 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Matthew Wright 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Matthew Wright kickoff for 65 yds , Malcolm Perry return for 15 yds to the Navy 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 20

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 23

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 25

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.78

Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 75 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+6 yds

Bennett Moehring kickoff for 50 yds , Mike Hughes return for 6 yds to the UCF 21

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +6.33

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Mike Martin run for 7 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Navy 33

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.93

Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Mike Martin run for 6 yds to the UCF 49

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.42

Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Garret Lewis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the UCF 43

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the UCF 39

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -1.87

Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the UCF 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 45

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.69

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 7 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by Tyris Wooten

3rd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.74

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 24 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 17

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Jarvis Polu) to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 9

2nd & 7Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.03

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 7 UCF Penalty, Offensive holding (Marlon Williams) to the Navy 17

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis Anderson

3rd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.00

McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 18

4th & 16Field Goal Good+35 ydsPPA +0.65

Matthew Wright 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Garret Lewis pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 9 yds to the Navy 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.36

Garret Lewis run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.22

Garret Lewis pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 30 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Darryl Bonner run for 4 yds to the UCF 16

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Mike Martin run for 3 yds to the UCF 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Anthony Gargiulo run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Bennett Moehring kickoff for 62 yds , Richie Grant return for 22 yds to the UCF 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.61

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.01

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-45 ydsPPA -3.59

McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Micah Thomas return for 30 yds to the Navy 14 NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Justin Norton) to the Navy 45

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Garret Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +3.00

Anthony Gargiulo run for 12 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Mike Martin run for 1 yd to the UCF 42

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the UCF 38

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -2.78

Darryl Bonner run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 46 Darryl Bonner fumbled, forced by Brandon Moore, recovered by UCF Brandon Moore , return for 2 yds to the UCF 46

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.66

Otis Anderson run for 26 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Navy 24

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

McKenzie Milton run for 7 yds to the Navy 17

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Navy 10

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.75

Otis Anderson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+35 yds

Matthew Wright kickoff for 65 yds , Malcolm Perry return for 35 yds to the Navy 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Darryl Bonner

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Navy 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Tyler Carmona

4th & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.01

Garret Lewis run for 6 yds to the Navy 44

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 39

4th & 5Penalty0 yds

UCF Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declined

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mac Loudermilk punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.96

Garret Lewis pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 17 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Malcolm Perry

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Garret Lewis pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Interception Return-12 ydsPPA +0.25

Garret Lewis pass intercepted Brandon Moore return for 2 yds to the UCF 31 UCF Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 34

2nd & 15Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.55

Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 29

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
100%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
28 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
25%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays