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← Back to GamesSep 23, 2017Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 3.7

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 61%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 23, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
7331427
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
377017

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-1010-1317-1317-27
North CarolinaDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCDUKNCNCDUKPUNT3-3ydPUNT612ydPUNT34ydPUNT620ydFG1061ydTD375ydPUNT38ydFG1266ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT30ydPUNT32ydMISS1244ydTD280ydEND1-1ydFG1970ydTD675ydPUNT512ydPUNT417ydPUNT37ydPUNT30ydPUNT35ydPUNT56ydTD874ydTD632ydDOWNS1570ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and North Carolina
StatisticDukeNorth Carolina
Passing18-3417-32
Pass Yards202259
Rush Yards186118
Total Yards388377
Turnovers01
3rd Down7-183-16
Penalties2-126-65
Possession33:3626:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Daniel Jones
18/34, 202 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brittain Brown
10 CAR, 90 YDS
receiving
T.J. Rahming
6 REC, 73 YDS
defense
North Carolina
passing
Chazz Surratt
17/32, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Chazz Surratt
17 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Anthony Ratliff-Williams
5 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Chazz Surratt sacked by Mike Ramsay and Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 19

2nd & 16Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

4th & 13Punt+11 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for 11 yds to the Duke 40

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 41

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.85

Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 49 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40

2nd & 1Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.84

Daniel Jones sacked by M.J. Stewart for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 48

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Daniel Jones pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 17

2nd & 13Penalty-9 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the NCaro 8

2nd & 22Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10

3rd & 20Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.15

Chazz Surratt run for 14 yds to the NCaro 24

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Daniel Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 18

3rd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.45

Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 23 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 41

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by M.J. Stewart

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.71

Daniel Jones sacked by Jason Strowbridge and Cayson Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 34

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 44 yds , Austin Proehl returns for no gain to the NCaro 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.43

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Austin Proehl for 47 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 30

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 26

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.77

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 7 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves, broken up by Jeremy McDuffie

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Chazz Surratt run for 10 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 7

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.47

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 10

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.59

Chazz Surratt sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 17

4th & 0Field Goal Good+34 yds

Freeman Jones 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the Duke 34

2nd & 1Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.06

Brittain Brown run for 38 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 25

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 29

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.14

Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 3 yds to the Duke 40

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Daniel Jones run for 14 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.83

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 19 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.13

Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 9 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCaro 13

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 10

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 1 yd to the NCaro 9

4th & 6Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.77

Austin Parker 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17

2nd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.52

Chazz Surratt sacked by Terrell Lucas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 9

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by K.J. Sails

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCaro 45

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by M.J. Stewart

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 27 yds, downed at the NCaro 18

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Myles Wolfolk

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.57

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the NCaro 35

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.88

Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 17

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.21

Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis Koppenhaver

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 12

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the NCaro 6

4th & 3Blocked Field Goal+24 yds

Austin Parker 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jason Strowbridge N/A return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.91

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 35 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 45 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 34

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.56

Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 43

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Daniel Jones pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.63

Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.57

Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah Clarke

3rd & 8Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.11

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 12

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.43

Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis Koppenhaver

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by M.J. Stewart

4th & 5Field Goal Good+24 ydsPPA -0.95

Austin Parker 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jordon Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +5.47

Chazz Surratt run for 56 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 18

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 33

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming

3rd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.70

Daniel Jones sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 26

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 26

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.54

Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.90

Michael Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 39

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40

3rd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 43

4th & 10Punt+50 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the UNC 14 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the Duke 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Duke 14

3rd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.22

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for no gain to the Duke 14

4th & 3Punt+7 yds

Austin Parker punt for 48 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 21 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ayden Bonilla) to the NCaro 35

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Chazz Surratt run for no gain to the NCaro 35

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Carl Tucker

4th & 10Punt+8 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for 8 yds to the Duke 43 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Hunter Crafford) to the Duke 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 47

3rd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.25

Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 33 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for no gain to the NCaro 22

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.09

Chazz Surratt run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.28

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 34 Chazz Surratt fumbled, recovered by NCaro Chazz Surratt

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 32

3rd & 12Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.29

Chazz Surratt sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 28

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Tom Sheldon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.22

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 45 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Daniel Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 3 yds to the NCaro 26

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24

4th & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.48

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 24

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Chazz Surratt run for 10 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.04

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 24 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 44

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete

3rd & 12Interception Return Touchdown-61 ydsPPA -8.32

Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-11 yds

Surratt, C rush up middle for 12 yards to the NC34 (Saxton II, A), PENALTY NC illegal block 11 yards to the NC11, NO PLAY.

1st & 21Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 3 yds to the NCaro 14

2nd & 18Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 10 yds to the NCaro 24

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Josh Cabrera

4th & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 15 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.56

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 19 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion-10 ydsPPA -2.64

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Cam Dillard) to the NCaro 48

2nd & 20Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 1 yd to the NCaro 49

3rd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 7 yds to the Duke 44

4th & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.75

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 17 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.20

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 15

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Alonzo Saxton II

4th & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -3.01

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 7 yds to the Duke 8

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 7

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
26%
31 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
16 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
4th
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
27%
11 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
25%
8 plays
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays