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← Back to GamesSep 16, 2017Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 8.2

Home Win Probability

Michigan 74%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 16, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
337013
MichiganMichigan
36101029

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-36-36-69-616-1319-1322-1329-13
MichiganAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICAFMICAFMICAFMICAFMICAFAFAFMICAFMICAFMICAFMICAFMICAFMICFG1158ydPUNT415ydTO420ydFG1224ydFG877ydFG642ydPUNT523ydPUNT33ydFG69ydEND1-1ydTD31ydTD475ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-13ydFG1132ydPUNT3-2ydFG828ydMISS1673ydPUNT415ydPUNT3-4ydTD973ydTO327ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Michigan
StatisticAir ForceMichigan
Passing1-914-23
Pass Yards64169
Rush Yards168190
Total Yards232359
Turnovers11
3rd Down3-135-14
Penalties3-297-72
Possession30:2529:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Arion Worthman
1/7, 64 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Timothy McVey
11 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Ronald Cleveland
1 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Michigan
passing
Wilton Speight
14/23, 169 YDS
rushing
Ty Isaac
16 CAR, 89 YDS
receiving
Tarik Black
5 REC, 55 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Wilton Speight pass complete to Ty Isaac for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.26

Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 15 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.14

Ty Isaac run for 32 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the AFA 21

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.19

Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant Perry

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the AFA 17

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant Perry

4th & 9Field Goal Good+35 ydsPPA -0.13

Quinn Nordin 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ronald Cleveland run for 5 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Maurice Hurst) to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Wilton Speight pass complete to Ty Isaac for 8 yds to the Mich 32

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 33

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -1.76

Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the Mich 44 Chris Evans fumbled, forced by Garrett Kauppila, recovered by AFA Robert Bullard

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the Mich 42

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Mich 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 35

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.53

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the Mich 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the Mich 27

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 yds

Timothy McVey run for 15 yds to the Mich 7 AIR FORCE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Griffin Landrum) to the Mich 22

1st & 10Rush+16 yds

Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Devin Bush) to the Mich 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Timothy McVey run for no gain to the Mich 6

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 7

3rd & 7Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.41

Arion Worthman sacked by Devin Bush for a loss of 13 yards to the Mich 20

4th & 0Field Goal Good+37 yds

Luke Strebel 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 16

2nd & 9Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.38

Wilton Speight pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 37 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 8 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 2Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.42

Wilton Speight pass complete to Zach Gentry for 30 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Eddie McDoom run for 1 yd to the AFA 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford

4th & 8Field Goal Good+26 ydsPPA -0.70

Quinn Nordin 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 4Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.77

Arion Worthman run for 34 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Parker Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mich 34

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Arion Worthman run for no gain to the Mich 34

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Malik Miller) to the Mich 39

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the Mich 33

4th & 8Field Goal Good+50 ydsPPA +1.18

Luke Strebel 50 yd FG GOOD

4th & 8Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Luke Strebel kickoff for 50 yds , Brad Hawkins return for 16 yds to the MICHIGAN 31 MICHIGAN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ben Mason) to the Mich 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 17

2nd & 9Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.45

Ty Isaac run for 15 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 35

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Karan Higdon run for 6 yds to the Mich 41

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Ty Isaac run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 39

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Will Hart punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 16

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Arion Worthman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 19

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 9 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.33

Ty Isaac run for 7 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Wilton Speight sacked by Matt Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 25

2nd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -2.61

Wilton Speight sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 35 Wilton Speight fumbled, forced by Jack Flor, recovered by Mich Nick Eubanks , return for 0 yards

3rd & 21Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the AFA 31

4th & 17Field Goal Good+49 ydsPPA +1.98

Quinn Nordin 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Parker Wilson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Timothy McVey

4th & 9Punt+79 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 53 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.15

Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 64 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Mich 20

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Eddie McDoom run for 5 yds to the Mich 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik Black

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Will Hart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 34

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.66

Arion Worthman sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28

2nd & 16Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -0.38

Arion Worthman run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 19 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by Rashan Gary, recovered by AFA Ronald Cleveland

3rd & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.01

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 21

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 22 yds, downed at the AFA 43

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Wilton Speight run for 8 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 5 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the AFA 23

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.89

Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.31

Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 13 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Karan Higdon run for 1 yd to the AFA 7

2nd & 7Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 8

3rd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Ty Isaac run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 11

4th & 11Field Goal Good+29 ydsPPA -0.36

Quinn Nordin 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

Worthman, Arion pass incomplete to Reffitt, Ryan, PENALTY AIRFORCE holding (Barnhorst, Jake) 9 yards to the AIRFORCE10, NO PLAY.

1st & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 11

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Geraud Sanders

3rd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 17

4th & 12Punt+25 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 54 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 25 yds to the AFA 46

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the AFA 45

2nd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.44

Ty Isaac run for 26 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kekoa Crawford) to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 7 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Eddie McDoom

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Karan Higdon run for no gain to the AFA 18

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Tarik Black

4th & 10Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA +0.03

Quinn Nordin 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.40

Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chase Winovich) to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.76

Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 41

2nd & 13Rush+27 ydsPPA +3.26

Timothy McVey run for 27 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Ronald Cleveland run for 9 yds to the Mich 23

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Parker Wilson run for no gain to the Mich 23

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.21

Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the Mich 15

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the Mich 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the Mich 5

2nd & 5Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.80

Timothy McVey run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 12

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Luke Strebel 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Wilton Speight pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Ty Isaac run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 1 yd to the Mich 35

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Will Hart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.20

Arion Worthman sacked by Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 32

2nd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 27

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the Mich 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.16

Wilton Speight pass complete to Tarik Black for 24 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Chris Evans run for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.32

Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the AFA 26 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Onwenu) to the AFA 36

1st & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 38

2nd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 16Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +5.39

Karan Higdon run for 36 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Romine, Nate pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul (Jones, Reuben) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Nate Romine run for 12 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Nate Romine pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.24

Nate Romine pass intercepted Khaleke Hudson return for no gain to the Mich 16

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 15

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
17%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
54%
13 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays