Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 18, 2017Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 8.8

Home Win Probability

Arkansas 25%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Nov 18, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
01401428
ArkansasArkansas
1407021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-714-1421-1421-2121-28
ArkansasMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ARKARKMSARKMSMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKPUNT34ydTD336ydPUNT33ydPUNT526ydTD1-5ydMISS1037ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT918ydPUNT33ydTD850ydDOWNS4-8ydTD317ydEND46ydDOWNS1166ydTD1075ydPUNT511ydTO111ydPUNT37ydPUNT833ydPUNT425ydPUNT33ydTD655ydDOWNS423ydTD944ydEND15yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Arkansas
StatisticMississippi StateArkansas
Passing12-2312-18
Pass Yards153124
Rush Yards19597
Total Yards348221
Turnovers21
3rd Down8-173-11
Penalties4-474-35
Possession33:3126:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
12/23, 153 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
22 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Reginald Todd
3 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Arkansas
passing
Austin Allen
12/18, 124 YDS
rushing
David Williams
8 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Deon Stewart
2 REC, 39 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Austin Allen pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 29 yds , Team returns for no gain to the MisSt 36 Team fumbled, recovered by Ark Reid Miller

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.44

Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 20 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.10

David Williams run for 13 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

David Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 2 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 13 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, , return for 0 yards

3rd & 14Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 7 yds to the MisSt 20

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 28

2nd & 11Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.04

Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 24 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 47

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 48

2nd & 14Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.25

Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 44

3rd & 18Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Austin Allen pass complete to Kendrick Jackson for 11 yds to the MisSt 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds, downed at the MisSt 5

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.08

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 5 yards Nick Gibson fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by Ark Briston Guidry for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 46

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 42

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.45

Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 34

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 28

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 28

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Jace Christmann 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 30

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 30

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.36

Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 25

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Ark 49

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.17

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd

2nd & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.20

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 37 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 47

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.94

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 9 yds to the Ark 38

3rd & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.39

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Grant Morgan for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 47

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 12

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 11

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.33

David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 20

3rd & 2Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.48

Ty Storey run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 15

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 48

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

N/A pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.60

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 13 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 35

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.01

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 17 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Austin Allen pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 4 yds to the Ark 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Austin Allen pass incomplete

4th & 8Rush-10 ydsPPA +0.23

Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Ark 15

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Jesse Jackson run for 7 yds to the Ark 8

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.53

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

De?Vion Warren rush for 15 yards to the AR45, out-of-bounds (Johnathan Abram), PENALTY AR holding (C. O'Grady) 10 yards to the AR20, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

David Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 22

2nd & 18Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.82

Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 22 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Austin Allen rush for 5 yards to the MS41, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the AR44, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.43

Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat and Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 36

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 6 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.95

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 19 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 28

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd, broken up by Kamren Curl

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

Austin Allen pass incomplete to T.J. Hammonds, PENALTY MS pass interference (Leo Lewis) 12 yards to the AR37, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.64

Austin Allen run for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Deon Stewart run for 8 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Devwah Whaley rush for 4 yards to the MS36 (Jamal Peters), PENALTY AR holding (Jake Raulerson) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.94

Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

David Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.45

David Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1 David Williams fumbled, for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the MisSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34

3rd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.56

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 31

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 42

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+11 ydsPPA -2.44

Austin Allen run for 11 yds to the MisSt 47 Austin Allen fumbled, forced by Johnathan Abram, recovered by MisSt Marquiss Spencer

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Nick Fitzgerald rush for no gain to the MS47 (De?Jon Harris;Bijhon Jackson), PENALTY MS holding (Darryl Williams) 10 yards to the MS37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd, broken up by Randy Ramsey

3rd & 20Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.38

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 17 yds to the Ark 46

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 25

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.04

Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for no gain to the Ark 36

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

David Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 43

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by J.T. Gray

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 13

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.74

Nick Fitzgerald run for 25 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 21

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Jordan Jones run for 7 yds to the Ark 28

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 28

3rd & 3Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.59

Austin Allen sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 24

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the MisSt 45

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 48

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 47

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 42

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 37

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +4.00

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 37 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cameron Dantzler) to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan Nance

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 43

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jonathan Nance run for 1 yd to the Ark 44 Jonathan Nance fumbled, recovered by Ark

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Austin Allen pass incomplete to La'Michael Pettway

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 41

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Ark 35

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 35

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.56

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the Ark 25

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.24

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.55

Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Ark 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 2 yds to the Ark 32 lat. to Deon Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to Cheyenne O'Grady for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to Johnny Gibson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to La'Michael Pettway for 19 yds to the Ark 32 to Devwah Whaley for 4 yds to the Ark 32

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
12 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
33%
18 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
43%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play