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← Back to GamesOct 21, 2017Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 5.7

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 67%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 21, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
07007
Mississippi StateMississippi State
71072145

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-724-731-738-745-7
Mississippi StateKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENKENMSKENMSPUNT618ydTD1278ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT35ydPUNT939ydPUNT1132ydTD778ydFG944ydPUNT39ydTD572ydPUNT524ydEND1-1ydTD1375ydPUNT415ydDOWNS540ydTO313ydTD938ydTD728ydDOWNS937ydTD662ydPUNT31ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Mississippi State
StatisticKentuckyMississippi State
Passing14-3019-27
Pass Yards145159
Rush Yards115282
Total Yards260441
Turnovers20
3rd Down6-1412-18
Penalties4-415-55
Possession25:1134:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Stephen Johnson
13/28, 117 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Stephen Johnson
6 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Lynn Bowden Jr.
3 REC, 38 YDS
defense
Mike Edwards
1 TFL, 1 PD
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
18/26, 155 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
12 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Donald Gray
6 REC, 51 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.08

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 2 yds to the Kent 43

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.42

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 17 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the Kent 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 9 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 35

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 35

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the Kent 25

4th & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 9

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 3

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.47

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. return for 19 yds to the Kent 19

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 14

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Mark McLaurin

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 17

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Tolando Cleveland

4th & 12Punt+10 yds

Matt Panton punt for 44 yds , Donald Gray returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Kent 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 1 yd to the Kent 46

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 38 yds, downed at the Kent 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Mark McLaurin

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 11

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Kent 26

2nd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.91

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25

3rd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.28

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Lynn Bowden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 47

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 9

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.41

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the MisSt 18

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.41

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.96

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Fitzgerald,Nick pass complete to Gray,Donald for 14 yards to the UK39 (Chris Westry), PENALTY MS holding (Gibson,Nick) 10 yards to the MS37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 17Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 22

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.00

Stephen Johnson run for 23 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

Lynn Bowden Jr. pass incomplete to Blake Bone, PENALTY MS pass interference (Rayford,Chris) 15 yards to the MS37, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Jeffery Simmons

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.14

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 14 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Stephen Johnson sacked by Braxton Hoyett and Dezmond Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 9Fumble Return Touchdown0 ydsPPA -6.85

Blake Bone 0 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Austin MacGinnis kickoff for 55 yds , Donald Gray return for 33 yds to the MisSt 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Darius West

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.84

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.17

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 21 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Kent 20

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the Kent 13

4th & 2Field Goal Good+31 ydsPPA -0.87

Jace Christmann 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. return for 18 yds to the Kent 18

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Sihiem King run for 8 yds to the Kent 26

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 27

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Willie Gay Jr.

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 28

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Thomas,Jordan, PENALTY UK pass interference (Derrick Baity) 11 yards to the UK49, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the Kent 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 40

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles, broken up by Mike Edwards

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +4.95

Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 55 yds , Zach Johnson return for 15 yds to the Kent 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 8 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 9 yds to the Kent 49

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.40

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 6

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.33

Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 5

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.99

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Fitzgerald,Nick pass complete to Williams,Aeris for 10 yards to the 50 yardline (Jordan Jones), PENALTY MS holding (Jenkins,Elgton) 10 yards to the MS30, NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.27

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 49

2nd & 5Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.38

Nick Fitzgerald run for 24 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Kent 17

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Stewart Reese) to the Kent 22

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 16

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.13

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 10

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. return for 21 yds to the Kent 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.38

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 43

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 45

3rd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.66

Stephen Johnson sacked by Dezmond Harris and Montez Sweat for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 36

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 17 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Todd,Reggie, PENALTY UK roughing passer (Kordell Looney) 15 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Nick Gibson, broken up by Josh Allen

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the Kent 32

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.67

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green, broken up by Josh Allen

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.62

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-2 ydsPPA -2.72

Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Braxton Hoyett return for 2 yds to the Kent 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Kent 35

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.55

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 12 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 20

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 17

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.41

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 11

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 9

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.92

Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 0Penalty-15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 67 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. return for 33 yds to the Kent 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.21

Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr.

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone

2nd & 10Interception Return Touchdown-84 ydsPPA -10.81

Stephen Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Gerri Green return for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Asim Rose run for 9 yds to the Kent 34

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Drew Barker pass incomplete to Charles Walker, broken up by Marquiss Spencer

3rd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.60

Drew Barker pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 28 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 31

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30

3rd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.41

Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32

4th & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.34

Drew Barker sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 4 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.53

Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the Kent 43

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Kent 40

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +4.40

Keytaon Thompson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Logan Cooke kickoff for 61 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. return for 21 yds to the Kent 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 26

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Drew Barker rush for 7 yards to the UK33 (Sweat,Montez), PENALTY UK holding (Drake Jackson) 10 yards to the UK16, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18

3rd & 17Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.07

Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Matt Panton punt for 67 yds, downed at the MisSt 7

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.38

Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 5

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.10

Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 4

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
12 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
4 plays