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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2017Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Auburn by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Auburn 57%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 30, 2017

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
370010
AuburnAuburn
14772149

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-07-314-321-321-1028-1042-1049-10
AuburnMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSMSAUBMSTD775ydPUNT36ydTO3-7ydFG810ydTD577ydPUNT634ydPUNT631ydPUNT3-5ydTD147ydDOWNS49ydMISS40ydPUNT513ydPUNT621ydTD877ydEND27ydPUNT517ydTD799ydTO37ydPUNT414ydDOWNS1051ydTO24ydDOWNS44ydTD560ydTD35ydDOWNS1363ydTD587ydEND1041yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Auburn
StatisticMississippi StateAuburn
Passing13-3714-17
Pass Yards157267
Rush Yards194244
Total Yards351511
Turnovers22
3rd Down7-216-12
Penalties10-391-15
Possession34:2025:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
13/33, 157 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
13 CAR, 56 YDS
receiving
Jamal Couch
2 REC, 60 YDS
defense
Auburn
passing
Jarrett Stidham
13/16, 264 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kerryon Johnson
23 CAR, 116 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Eli Stove
2 REC, 75 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 26

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Jarrett Stidham run for 10 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+59 ydsPPA +3.26

Kerryon Johnson run for 59 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the MisSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 4Punt+11 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 11 yds to the Aub 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 45

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.23

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kyle Davis

3rd & 4Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.63

Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 13 yards to the Aub 32, fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Montez Sweat.

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the Aub 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 3 yds to the Aub 23

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 23

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.89

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Aub 14

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the Aub 12

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Jordan Thomas) to the Aub 17

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the Aub 22

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

4th & 11Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA +0.48

Jace Christmann 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 28

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 31

3rd & 2Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +3.79

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 49 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Couch, Jamal, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Williams, Andrew) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.88

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 44

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 41

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for no gain to the Aub 41

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 6 yds to the Aub 26

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.37

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 18 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Aidan Marshall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Carlton Davis

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Greg Eiland) to the MisSt 9

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+5 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 43 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.61

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.05

Logan Cooke run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the MisSt 33

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Devan Barrett run for 7 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.24

Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 33

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Daniel Carlson 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 6 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 22

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.77

Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 24

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the Aub 35

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 35

4th & 1Punt+5 yds

Aidan Marshall punt for 47 yds , Donald Gray returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.34

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 11 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Aub 17

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 1

2nd & 1Penalty-4 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the Aub 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 29

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 33

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 36

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 31

3rd & 18Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.20

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 40

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds, downed at the Aub 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+57 ydsPPA +3.70

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 57 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 3Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.83

Eli Stove run for 30 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.86

Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 9

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 6

3rd & 6Penalty+4 yds

Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Davis, Kyle (Cleveland, Tolando), PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cleveland, Tolando) 4 yards to the MISSSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tray Matthews return for no gain to the Aub 49

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Devan Barrett run for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton

3rd & 12Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Aidan Marshall punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 10

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 5

1st & 15Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.12

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 32 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 5 yds to the Aub 44

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.38

Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green, broken up by Carlton Davis

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 34

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 39

4th & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 41

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -1.47

Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 43 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by MisSt Gerri Green

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.46

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Aub 43

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 39

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 46

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +4.41

Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 1

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 1 yd to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Interception Return Touchdown-37 ydsPPA -7.26

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Javaris Davis return for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Aub 46

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.17

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.79

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 28 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 12

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.58

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Aub 15

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Malik Miller run for 9 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Malik Miller run for 6 yds to the Aub 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for 3 yds to the Aub 33

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +6.17

Malik Willis run for 67 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

3rd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.18

Keytaon Thompson run for 15 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Aub 47

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald Todd

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Keytaon Thompson run for 10 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.75

Keytaon Thompson sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 34 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, forced by Big Kat Bryant, recovered by MisSt Greg Eiland , return for 0 yards

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
27%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays

Auburn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
52%
21 plays
2nd
14%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play