Skip to main content
← Back to GamesDec 26, 2016Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 6.4

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 69%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Dec 26, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
367016
Mississippi StateMississippi State
077317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-30-97-97-1614-1617-16
Mississippi StateMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20M(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSM(MSFG958ydPUNT428ydPUNT416ydPUNT520ydTO969ydPUNT35ydTD866ydDOWNS924ydPUNT32ydTD964ydEND10ydPUNT728ydTD885ydTD982ydTO845ydFG751ydDOWNS943ydDOWNS745ydMISS958ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Mississippi State
StatisticMiami (OH)Mississippi State
Passing22-3113-27
Pass Yards263136
Rush Yards170199
Total Yards433335
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-97-14
Penalties3-302-25
Possession35:0824:52

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
Gus Ragland
22/30, 263 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kenny Young
9 CAR, 67 YDS
receiving
James Gardner
5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
13/26, 136 YDS
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
18 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Fred Ross
4 REC, 44 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.05

Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for no gain to the MisSt 47

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.93

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 10 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.58

Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 25 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the MisSt 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Ryan Smith

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

4th & 1Field Goal Good+18 ydsPPA -1.21

Nick Dowd 18 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 12

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.65

Maurice Thomas run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Gus Ragland pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared Murphy

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 28

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27

2nd & 11Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.49

Aeris Williams run for 18 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Kenny Young run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.54

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 16 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.37

Maurice Thomas run for 18 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Gus Ragland pass complete to Alexx Zielinski for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared Murphy

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.54

Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -3.93

Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 16 yds, Rokeem Williams fumbled, recovered by MisSt Richie Brown, return for 2 yds to the MisSt 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Malik Dear run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40

2nd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.75

Gus Ragland run for 20 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Gus Ragland run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.64

Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.42

Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 19 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

James Gardner 6 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd PAT blocked)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.62

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 41

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.47

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Gus Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 36

4th & 8Punt+7 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 35 yds , Fred Ross returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.19

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.75

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 24 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 17

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.51

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the MiaOh 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for no gain to the MiaOh 28

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.47

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 21 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Alonzo Smith run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cedric Jiles) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.62

Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 20 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Ryan Smith 1 Yd pass from Gus Ragland (Nick Dowd Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.63

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +4.14

Nick Fitzgerald 44 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.82

Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.49

Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 20 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.57

Gus Ragland sacked by Nick James for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 34

2nd & 17Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33

3rd & 16Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30

4th & 13Pass Interception Return-21 ydsPPA -1.53

Gus Ragland pass intercepted Jamoral Graham return for 21 yds to the MisSt 30

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik Dear

3rd & 4Rush+41 yds

Nick Fitzgerald run for 26 yds to the MISSSTATE 38 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Personal Foul (Deondre Daniels) to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 25Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34

3rd & 21Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.01

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds to the MiaOh 19

4th & 6Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA -0.26

Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Gus Ragland run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 31

1st & 15Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.15

Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kenny Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 6 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.90

Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Rokeem Williams pass incomplete to Sam Shisso

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Gus Ragland pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.80

Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Ryan Smith

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.00

Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Heath Harding) to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 25

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 21

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.78

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 22

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.24

Damian Williams pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 34

2nd & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.26

Kenny Young run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.61

Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 23 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Gus Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 19

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20

3rd & 13Blocked Field Goal+37 yds

Nick Dowd 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nelson Adams

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
46%
24 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play