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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2016Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 5.8

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 68%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 24, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WisconsinWisconsin
7617030
Michigan StateMichigan State
33006

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-76-136-206-236-30
Michigan StateWisconsin

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISWISMSMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSPUNT415ydTO631ydFG716ydTD1665ydPUNT418ydPUNT38ydTO35ydTD628ydFG1562ydTO745ydPUNT31ydTD216ydPUNT58ydFG1054ydDOWNS4-16ydTD15ydTO758ydPUNT1050ydDOWNS1146ydPUNT35ydTO450ydPUNT38ydEND652yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Wisconsin and Michigan State
StatisticWisconsinMichigan State
Passing16-2620-43
Pass Yards195250
Rush Yards12275
Total Yards317325
Turnovers24
3rd Down7-164-13
Penalties7-675-35
Possession32:4827:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Wisconsin
passing
Alex Hornibrook
16/26, 195 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dare Ogunbowale
9 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Jazz Peavy
4 REC, 96 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Tyler O'Connor
18/38, 224 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
LJ Scott
14 CAR, 61 YDS
receiving
Donnie Corley
4 REC, 84 YDS
defense
Demetrious Cox
0.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.39

LJ Scott run for 19 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

LJ Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Jamal Lyles

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Tyler O'Connor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 17

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.31

Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 15

3rd & 11Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.94

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 19 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.57

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 17 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 49

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.68

Alex Hornibrook sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 47 Alex Hornibrook fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Kevin Williams

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (David Beedle) to the MchSt 48

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah Price

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris

3rd & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.58

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 17 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 4 yds to the Wisc 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis III

4th & 6Field Goal Good+48 ydsPPA +0.74

Michael Geiger 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.21

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Corey Clement for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 35

3rd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.67

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 25 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the MchSt 32

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Alex Hornibrook run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.41

Alec Ingold run for 6 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.38

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 8 yds to the MchSt 17

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 5 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 9 yds to the MchSt 3

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.88

Alec Ingold run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Corey Clement run for no gain to the MchSt 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Eric Steffes for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 43

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 25

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 28

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Anthony Lotti punt for 47 yds, fair catch by R.J. Shelton at the MchSt 25

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return-8 ydsPPA -0.26

Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Sojourn Shelton return for 8 yds to the MchSt 28

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy

3rd & 12Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.16

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 23 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Corey Clement run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 23

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Donnie Corley run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.57

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49

3rd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.71

Tyler O'Connor run for 15 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie Corley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 6 yds to the Wisc 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.85

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 8 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Prescott Line

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 23

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Josiah Price

4th & 11Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA +0.57

Michael Geiger 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.15

Dare Ogunbowale run for 16 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Dare Ogunbowale run for 8 yds to the Wisc 42

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Robert Wheelwright

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.29

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 17 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Alex Hornibrook run for no gain to the MchSt 37

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return-4 ydsPPA -3.20

Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Darian Hicks return for 4 yds to the MchSt 16

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 12

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Troy Fumagalli

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Anthony Lotti punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the Wisc 43

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+66 ydsPPA -3.75

LJ Scott run for 9 yds LJ Scott fumbled, forced by Jack Cichy, recovered by Wisc Leo Musso , return for 66 yds, (Andrew Endicott KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.54

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 34

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris

3rd & 11Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler O'Connor sacked by Vince Biegel for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Miguel Machado) declined

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds, downed at the Wisc 23

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.01

Alex Hornibrook sacked by Demetrius Cooper and Shane Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 17

2nd & 16Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 22

3rd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.15

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 15 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Eric Steffes for 1 yd to the Wisc 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.73

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 31 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dare Ogunbowale run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Dare Ogunbowale run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.68

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for no gain to the MchSt 23

4th & 3Field Goal Good+41 ydsPPA -0.27

Andrew Endicott 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Donnie Corley run for no gain to the MchSt 21

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Monty Madaris MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) declined

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Felton Davis III

4th & 10Rush-16 ydsPPA +0.32

TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the MchSt 5

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Corey Clement run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.42

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.38

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 16 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Madre London run for 6 yds to the Wisc 39

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.51

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 1 yd to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Vince Biegel) to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie Corley

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Wisc 20

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.75

Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted T.J. Edwards return for no gain to the Wisc 15

1st & 10Penalty-7 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-7 Yards) to the Wisc 8

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.16

Corey Clement run for 22 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.40

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Austin Ramesh run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Dare Ogunbowale

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Grayson Miller) to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35

2nd & 6Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.39

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 42

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 44

3rd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Alex Hornibrook pass complete to George Rushing for 9 yds to the MchSt 35

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Anthony Lotti punt for 27 yds, downed at the MchSt 8

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.45

Tyler O'Connor sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 4

2nd & 14Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.86

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.25

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 27 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 7 yds to the Wisc 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.40

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Josiah Price for 8 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie Corley

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.29

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Monty Madaris for 16 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

O'Connor, Tyler pass incomplete to Corley, Donnie, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Beedle, David) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN38, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.29

Tyler O'Connor sacked by D'Cota Dixon for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 47

2nd & 34Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Tyler O'Connor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 40

3rd & 27Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.61

Tyler O'Connor sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 46

4th & 33Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.28

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Donnie Corley

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Corey Clement run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 45

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Alec Ingold run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Michael Deiter) to the Wisc 45

3rd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Dare Ogunbowale run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Anthony Lotti punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 10 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.14

Tyler O'Connor pass complete to Donnie Corley for 40 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Tyler O'Connor pass incomplete to Gerald Holmes

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.53

Tyler O'Connor pass intercepted Derrick Tindal return for no gain to the Wisc 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Wisc 19

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Austin Ramesh run for 4 yds to the Wisc 26

4th & 2Punt+13 yds

Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 13 yds to the MchSt 39

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trishton Jackson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.56

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 10 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Lewerke, Brian rush for no gain to the WISCONSIN36, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal shift 5 yards to the WISCONSIN41, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.09

Brian Lewerke run for 16 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.28

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 16 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Felton Davis III

Situational Analysis

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
25%
24 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
33%
12 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
5 plays
4th
67%
3 plays

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
29 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
42%
12 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays