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← Back to GamesOct 28, 2016Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 1.2

Home Win Probability

South Florida 46%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 28, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
01472445
South FloridaSouth Florida
28143752

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-028-735-735-1442-1445-1445-2145-2752-3352-39
South FloridaNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVTD475ydDOWNS626ydTD747ydPUNT422ydTD185ydPUNT31ydTD246ydTD672ydTD1268ydTD975ydTD1375ydTO417ydTO748ydEND10ydPUNT35ydFG1574ydTD870ydPUNT35ydTD1699ydTD346ydTD672ydMISS615ydTD767ydPUNT30ydEND885yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and South Florida
StatisticNavySouth Florida
Passing15-2720-30
Pass Yards299217
Rush Yards317412
Total Yards616629
Turnovers11
3rd Down8-1312-16
Penalties2-108-50
Possession33:0126:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Will Worth
15/25, 299 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Will Worth
28 CAR, 129 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Jamir Tillman
4 REC, 76 YDS
defense
South Florida
passing
Quinton Flowers
19/29, 219 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Quinton Flowers
13 CAR, 176 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Rodney Adams
7 REC, 54 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 10 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +5.05

Quinton Flowers run for 63 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 30

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.43

Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Chris High run for 8 yds to the Navy 48

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 49

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Will Worth run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 47

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Marlon Mack run for no gain to the Navy 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.41

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 7 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 27

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.56

Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

D'Ernest Johnson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds to the Navy 47

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+85 ydsPPA +6.62

Marlon Mack run for 85 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan Romine

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

4th & 9Punt+31 yds

Alex Barta punt for 51 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 31 yds to the Navy 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 5 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.45

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 41 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.06

Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 42 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (Andrew Wood) to the SFla 30

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Will Worth run for 7 yds to the SFla 23

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.43

Shawn White run for 13 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Will Worth run for 6 yds to the SFla 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 40

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 19 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 25

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.60

Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the Navy 14

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney Adams

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.85

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 13 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 6

1st & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.15

D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.53

Will Worth run for 17 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Chris High run for 3 yds to the SFla 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 38

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.77

Will Worth run for 6 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Shawn White run for 12 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Chris High run for 15 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chris High run for 4 yds to the SFla 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.70

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 36

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.09

D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 1 yd to the SFla 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -2.32

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 6 yds to the SOUFLA 46 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jeremi Hall) to the SFla 39

2nd & 18Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the SFla 48

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.94

Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 9 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.32

D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 16

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.64

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 16 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 6 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Worth pass incomplete to Craig Scott

3rd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.44

Will Worth pass intercepted Ronnie Hoggins return for no gain to the Navy 49

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Marlon Mack run for 5 yds to the Navy 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 3 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.53

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 11 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+23 ydsPPA -3.88

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 23 yds Mitchell Wilcox fumbled, forced by Josiah Powell, recovered by Navy Sean Williams

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Worth run for no gain to the Navy 1

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan Romine

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 22

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jeremi Hall) to the SFla 17

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Quinton Flowers run for 7 yds to the SFla 24

3rd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.61

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 2 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marlon Mack) to the SFla 21

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCants

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 9 yds to the SFla 30

3rd & 6Rush+26 ydsPPA +3.39

Quinton Flowers run for 26 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.66

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 18 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) to the Navy 31

1st & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marlon Mack for 5 yds to the Navy 26

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Navy 24

3rd & 8Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.33

Quinton Flowers run for 17 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene Bronson

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Elkanah Dillon) to the Navy 12

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the Navy 11

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling

4th & 11Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.36

Emilio Nadelman 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.45

Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 29 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Toneo Gulley run for 7 yds to the SFla 34

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.01

Calvin Cass Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Calvin Cass Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 25

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Toneo Gulley run for 11 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Will Worth run for 10 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Marlon Mack run for 6 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah Dillon

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonathan Hernandez punt for 43 yds, downed at the Navy 1

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Will Worth run for 5 yds to the Navy 6

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.31

Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Worth run for 12 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 38

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.93

Will Worth pass complete to Shawn White for 14 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Calvin Cass Jr. run for 9 yds to the SFla 38

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Chris High run for 1 yd to the SFla 33

3rd & 9Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.76

Toneo Gulley run for 22 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Worth pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Will Worth run for 4 yds to the SFla 3

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.87

Toneo Gulley 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +0.93

Quinton Flowers run for 26 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 16

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.64

D'Ernest Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Worth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Calvin Cass Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 36

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.64

Shawn White run for 7 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Dishan Romine run for 12 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.26

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 43 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Toneo Gulley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 49

1st & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.85

D'Ernest Johnson run for 13 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brett Kean run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

3rd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.30

Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 31

4th & 6Blocked Field Goal+48 yds

Brandon Behr 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM Sean Williams return for 17 yds to the Navy 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 8 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 2Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +1.82

Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 42 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Worth pass incomplete to Darryl Bonner

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.39

Will Worth run for 9 yds to the SFla 8

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.64

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the SFla 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Will Worth 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 38

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 38

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 43

2nd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.17

D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

3rd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Navy 43

4th & 15Punt+6 yds

Jonathan Hernandez punt for 34 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Navy 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.69

Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 12 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.66

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 18 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 9 yds to the SFla 46

3rd & 1Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.90

Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 37 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Worth pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Will Worth pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 9 yds for a TD

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
64%
36 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
63%
8 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
10 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
48%
27 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
36%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play