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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2016Week 5
NavyNavy
14
-Final
28
Air ForceAir Force

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 1.9

Home Win Probability

Air Force 44%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 1, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
0001414
Air ForceAir Force
03141128

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-020-028-728-14
Air ForceNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFDOWNS738ydPUNT33ydTO546ydPUNT68ydPUNT36ydTO831ydPUNT827ydPUNT941ydPUNT36ydFG4-7ydPUNT35ydPUNT618ydEND1-3ydTD1078ydTO937ydTD262ydPUNT31ydFG1482ydTD875ydTD477ydTO513ydPUNT38ydTD1486ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Air Force
StatisticNavyAir Force
Passing17-318-15
Pass Yards260257
Rush Yards57173
Total Yards317430
Turnovers31
3rd Down5-158-16
Penalties3-155-70
Possession28:0032:00

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Will Worth
17/30, 260 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Chris High
11 CAR, 32 YDS
receiving
Jamir Tillman
9 REC, 128 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Nate Romine
8/14, 257 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jacobi Owens
15 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Jalen Robinette
5 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Grant Ross
0.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.47

Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 30 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Shawn White run for 4 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Shawn White run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 37

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Worth pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.44

Will Worth pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 38

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Nate Romine pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+48 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds , Craig Scott returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 15

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.61

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jack Flor) to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Will Worth pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.06

Will Worth sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 43 Will Worth fumbled, recovered by AFA Haji Dunn Jr. , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nate Romine pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.07

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.86

Nate Romine run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 46 Nate Romine fumbled,

3rd & 23Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Navy 49

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 13

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Toneo Gulley) to the Navy 8

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 13

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 5 yds to the Navy 18

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Toneo Gulley run for 1 yd to the Navy 19

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Erik Harris punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.42

D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by D.J. Palmore

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Ronald Cleveland run for 9 yds to the Navy 36

3rd & 1Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.50

Tyler Williams pass intercepted Daiquan Thomasson return for no gain to the Navy 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 14

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 20

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.42

Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.43

Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Shawn White run for 8 yds to the Navy 39

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Erik Harris punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 18

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.80

Nate Romine pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.22

Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 21 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 8Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.18

Timothy McVey run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 41

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Nate Romine run for no gain to the Navy 41

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 4

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 7

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 10

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Erik Harris punt

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 8

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Robinette) to the Navy 23

3rd & 21Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 19

4th & 17Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA +0.86

Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Worth run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

3rd & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.19

Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Erik Harris punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.72

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 10

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.46

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 7

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.78

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 41 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.33

D.J. Johnson run for 12 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 20

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Navy 15

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.10

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the Navy 4

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.99

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nate Romine run for no gain to the Navy 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Timothy McVey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Worth pass incomplete to Tyler Carmona

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 40

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Toneo Gulley run for 5 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 48

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.27

Will Worth run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 5 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Will Worth run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.91

Will Worth pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 38

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 23

1st & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 23Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +7.24

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.39

Will Worth sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 12 yards to the Navy 15

2nd & 22Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.29

Will Worth run for 13 yds to the Navy 28

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Will Worth pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+3 yds

Erik Harris punt for 52 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 3 yds to the AFA 31 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the AFA 13

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 1Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.31

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 27 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Navy 25

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 18

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 9

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 5

4th & 3Field Goal Good+22 ydsPPA -1.04

Luke Strebel 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 6 yds to the Navy 45

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.32

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 21 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 6 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Weston Steelhammer) to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.61

Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+62 ydsPPA +4.95

Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 62 yds for a TD, (R. Cleveland Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan Romine

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Worth pass incomplete to Daniel Gonzales, broken up by Jacob Onyechi

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.

4th & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Worth pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 30

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 37

4th & 2Punt+48 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 14

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.59

Will Worth sacked by Jack Flor and Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 10

2nd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Worth sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 2

3rd & 22Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Worth pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 21 yds to the Navy 23

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.22

Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Will Worth pass complete to Brandon Colon for 17 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.51

Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.97

Will Worth sacked by Jack Flor and Grant Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 40

2nd & 17Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.63

Will Worth sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 44

3rd & 21Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +5.29

Will Worth pass complete to Brandon Colon for 42 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Shawn White run for no gain to the AFA 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Dishan Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
36%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
63%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
27%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
56%
16 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
75%
8 plays
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play