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← Back to GamesNov 20, 2016Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 2.6

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 58%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Nov 20, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ArkansasArkansas
142461458
Mississippi StateMississippi State
140141442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-714-1414-2114-3114-3821-4428-5236-5842-58
Mississippi StateArkansas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKTD275ydTD473ydMISS863ydPUNT410ydTD271ydTD1274ydTD885ydPUNT39ydFG646ydPUNT32ydTD460ydPUNT523ydTD555ydMISS851ydTD770ydTD1279ydTD676ydTD861ydTD771ydTD944ydTD1064ydEND522yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas and Mississippi State
StatisticArkansasMississippi State
Passing19-2623-33
Pass Yards304328
Rush Yards357205
Total Yards661533
Turnovers00
3rd Down7-115-13
Penalties1-103-22
Possession33:1326:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas
passing
Austin Allen
18/25, 303 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Rawleigh Williams III
16 CAR, 205 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Drew Morgan
6 REC, 91 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
23/33, 328 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
17 CAR, 131 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Fred Ross
10 REC, 171 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 28

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +6.37

Rawleigh Williams III run for 72 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 36

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.40

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+58 ydsPPA +4.56

Nick Fitzgerald run for 58 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.70

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 34 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.87

Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 14 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Austin Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Austin Allen pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Adam McFain 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 3 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 7Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.32

Keith Mixon run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 27

3rd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.48

Austin Allen pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 29 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Rawleigh Williams III run for 42 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 26

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.18

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.75

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 13 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yards to the AR24 (DJ Dean), PENALTY MS holding (Justin Senior) 10 yards to the AR46, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Ark 40

2nd & 14Penalty-10 yds

Aeris Williams rush for 11 yards to the AR29 (Santos Ramirez), PENALTY MS holding (Deion Calhoun) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.

2nd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik Dear, broken up by Brooks Ellis

3rd & 24Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 23 yds to the Ark 27

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 18

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jared Cornelius run for 2 yds to the Ark 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.72

Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 33 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.33

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.88

Rawleigh Williams III run for 23 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keith Mixon run for 5 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Austin Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.51

Devwah Whaley run for 50 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 16

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon Hatcher

4th & 14Field Goal Good+34 ydsPPA +0.26

Adam McFain 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris Williams

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 40

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Austin Allen run for no gain to the Ark 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.83

Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O?Grady for 23 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +0.85

T.J. Hammonds run for 30 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.75

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray (Ryan Pulley), PENALTY AR holding (Ryan Pulley) 10 yards to the MS38, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 3Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.44

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 40

4th & 8Punt+21 yds

Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 21 yds to the Ark 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Leo Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds to the Ark 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.67

Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.88

Rawleigh Williams III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.01

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the Ark 34

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Josh Liddell

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.02

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Westin Graves 44 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.66

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.68

Malik Dear run for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 40 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.73

Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 19

2nd & 12Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.30

Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 32 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.20

Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.85

Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 29

2nd & 13Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.68

Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 24 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Austin Allen run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Rawleigh Williams III pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.14

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 24 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Ark 43

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA -0.12

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.28

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 31 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 2 yds to the Ark 41

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.91

Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.10

Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 24 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Austin Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.89

Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 10 yds for a TD, (K. Hatcher Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.72

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 43 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.05

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 23 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.65

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the Ark 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch, broken up by Jared Collins

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Fitzgerald pass to Fred Ross for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.41

Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 35

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.05

Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds to the MisSt 25

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.03

Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jared Cornelius run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45

4th & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.77

Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 26

3rd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.05

Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.32

Devwah Whaley run for 13 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 24

Situational Analysis

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
42%
31 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
67%
15 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
59%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
78%
9 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
40%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
4 plays