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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2016Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 0.8

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 48%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 22, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
014101438
KentuckyKentucky
06211340

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-03-76-1412-1720-1727-2434-3137-3840-38
KentuckyMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENKENMSKENPUNT31ydMISS1557ydPUNT38ydPUNT34ydPUNT34ydPUNT523ydPUNT36ydFG830ydTD455ydPUNT30ydPUNT40ydTO524ydTD435ydFG961ydEND15ydTD375ydFG956ydTD657ydTD468ydTD475ydTD618ydPUNT3-1ydTD841ydFG661ydTD1477ydFG746yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Kentucky
StatisticMississippi StateKentucky
Passing13-2117-33
Pass Yards81292
Rush Yards281262
Total Yards362554
Turnovers12
3rd Down4-126-15
Penalties7-502-20
Possession27:0732:53

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
13/21, 81 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
16 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Fred Ross
5 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Kentucky
passing
Stephen Johnson
17/33, 292 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Benny Snell Jr.
19 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jeff Badet
7 REC, 139 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 3 yds Donald Gray fumbled,

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 9 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40

3rd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 9

3rd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 10

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+28 yds

Austin MacGinnis 28 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 8 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nick Fitzgerald , return for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 8

2nd & 22Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 5 yds to the MisSt 13

3rd & 17Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.32

Ashton Shumpert run for 15 yds to the MisSt 28

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 32 Charles Walker fumbled, recovered by Kent Charles Walker

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 4 yds to the Kent 36

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Stanley Williams

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 7 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 31

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 7 yds to the Kent 39

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Cory Thomas

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 19

2nd & 2Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.87

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 17

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 42

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Stanley Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 26

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 28

4th & 8Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +0.69

Austin MacGinnis 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.14

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Kent 40

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 45

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +4.47

Malik Dear run for 45 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 17

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet

4th & 10Punt+4 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 32 yds , Fred Ross returns for 4 yds to the Kent 45

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.27

Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the KENTUCKY 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 42

1st & 23Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 21Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the Kent 45

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 12

2nd & 9Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.22

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 27 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 40

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.97

Stephen Johnson sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 35 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by MisSt Marquiss Spencer , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.37

Malik Dear run for 16 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Ashton Shumpert run for 12 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Kent 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.01

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 21 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker, broken up by Johnathan Calvin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.45

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 32 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker

4th & 5Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.62

Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.57

Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 26 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 44 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.21

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.80

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for no gain to the UK27 (Courtney Love), PENALTY MS holding 10 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Malik Dear run for no gain to the Kent 37

2nd & 20Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.10

Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds to the Kent 19

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 19

4th & 2Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA -0.61

Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 42

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 48

3rd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Stanley Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 35

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34

3rd & 9Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +4.37

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Stephen Johnson pass to Tavin Richardson for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.71

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 22 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Nick Fitzgerald run for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 24 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 4Penalty+5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY MS offside defense (Jeffery Simmons) 5 yards to the MS40, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Malik Dear run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Martinas Rankin) 5 yards to the MS43, NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown-45 ydsPPA -7.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Marcus McWilson return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 40

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.57

Stanley Williams run for 20 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.28

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 6

2nd & 0Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+81 yds

Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards Stephen Johnson fumbled, forced by Cory Thomas, recovered by MisSt Mark McLaurin , return for 81 yds, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +2.89

Stanley Williams run for 35 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +0.61

Stanley Williams run for 23 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Stephen Johnson) 5 yards to the MS22, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Jeffery Simmons

4th & 7Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.48

Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Derrick Baity

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.32

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 36

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.27

Malik Dear run for 9 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald rush for 1 yard to the UK26 (Derrick Baity), PENALTY MS holding (Justin Senior) 10 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Kent 26

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, PENALTY UK pass interference (Chris Westry) 15 yards to the UK11, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the Kent 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Blake McClain

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.84

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.36

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 12 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 18 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 00:03 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+51 ydsPPA -1.10

Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
57%
23 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
34 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
43%
14 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays