Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 15, 2016Week 7

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 10.2

Home Win Probability

LSU 78%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 15, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
730010
LSULSU
7328745

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-710-1024-1038-1045-10
LSUSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMLSUSMTD1575ydPUNT3-8ydPUNT31ydTD355ydPUNT3-9ydFG536ydFG1162ydPUNT1228ydEND521ydTD370ydTO419ydTD222ydPUNT69ydPUNT30ydPUNT33ydTD180ydDOWNS735ydTD163ydPUNT33ydTO316ydPUNT616ydTD787ydEND827yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and LSU
StatisticSouthern MissLSU
Passing25-3711-18
Pass Yards161276
Rush Yards81183
Total Yards242459
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-185-9
Penalties6-426-55
Possession37:5922:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Nick Mullens
25/36, 161 YDS
rushing
Ito Smith
16 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ito Smith
6 REC, 46 YDS
defense
Elijah Parker
2 TFL, 1 PD
LSU
passing
Danny Etling
11/18, 276 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Derrius Guice
16 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Malachi Dupre
3 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Arden Key

3rd & 11Penalty+15 yds

LSU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donte Jackson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 3 yds to the LSU 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 3 yds to the LSU 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase Whitehead

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

MULLENS, Nick punt 39 yards to the LS5, downed, PENALTY LS substitution infraction 5 yards to the LS39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the LSU 38

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the LSU 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LSU 30

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.28

Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

George Payne run for 5 yds to the LSU 22

2nd & 5Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.78

Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the LSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.93

Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for no gain to the LSU 32

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.85

Danny Etling sacked by Elijah Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 24

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. Chark, broken up by Cornell Armstrong

4th & 18Punt+5 yds

Josh Growden punt for 56 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers

3rd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 26

4th & 9Punt+13 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 47 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 13 yds to the LSU 39 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 45

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.81

Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 25 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

D.J. Chark run for 19 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 6 yds to the SoMis 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 31

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Mullens sacked by Tashawn Bower for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 16 Nick Mullens fumbled, , return for 0 yards

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.75

Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 31 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius Guice, broken up by Elijah Parker

4th & 5Field Goal Good+38 ydsPPA -0.22

Colby Delahoussaye 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.25

Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds to the SoMis 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.43

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 27 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LSU 27

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.54

Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the LSU 20

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA -0.19

Parker Shaunfield 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 15

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius Guice

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 9 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 30

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 33

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 44

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.37

Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, false start (Travin Dural) to the LSU 44

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 46

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LSU 41

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 9

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 14

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 13 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

George Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 30

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 32

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 7 yds to the LSU 39

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +5.73

Derrius Guice run for 61 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 8 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.80

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -1.31

George Payne run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 22 George Payne fumbled, forced by Jamal Adams, recovered by LSU Jamal Adams , return for 4 yds to the SoMis 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.87

Derrius Guice run for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.35

Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 10 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.28

Nick Mullens sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 22

2nd & 16Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds to the SoMis 26

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Nick Mullens pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 36

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.29

Darrel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 32

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 68 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Picasso Nelson Jr., broken up by Dwayne Thomas

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds, downed at the LSU 20

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 80 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the SoMis 36

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey Robertson

3rd & 2Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.56

Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 18 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

D.J. Thompson pass incomplete to Chase Whitehead

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.00

George Payne run for 9 yds to the LSU 37

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase Whitehead

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.34

George Payne run for no gain to the LSU 37

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +5.05

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 63 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 12

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 3 yds to the SoMis 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 19

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

SARRAZIN, Tyler punt 45 yards to the LS36, T. White return to the USM34 (TRULY, D.;ABSTON, Justin), PENALTY USM illegal formation 5 yards to the USM14, NO PLAY.

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 53 yds, downed at the LSU 33

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 40

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.08

Danny Etling pass intercepted Tarvarius Moore return for no gain to the SoMis 2

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. Thompson

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 11

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.06

Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 18

4th & 7Punt-8 yds

Tyler Sarrazin punt for 61 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 13

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.36

Derrius Guice run for 21 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 13 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.95

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.38

Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 11 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.23

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 23 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tez Parks run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.12

Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 12 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 37

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 37

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Ty Pollard) to the SoMis 32

3rd & 18Penalty+15 yds

MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to FOSTER, Devonta, PENALTY LS pass interference (Kristian Fulton) 15 yards to the USM47, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 46

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

George Payne run for 3 yds to the LSU 49

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
27 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
27%
11 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
62%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play