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← Back to GamesSep 17, 2016Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 4.2

Home Win Probability

LSU 63%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 17, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
0331420
LSULSU
1490023

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-020-020-323-323-623-20
LSUMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSMSLSUMSLSUPUNT37ydPUNT35ydTD764ydPUNT637ydPUNT425ydPUNT3-1ydTD746ydPUNT3-2ydTD1182ydFG958ydFG1268ydEND1-2ydPUNT437ydPUNT33ydFG1240ydTO322ydPUNT715ydPUNT37ydPUNT31ydTO1365ydTD966ydTD232ydPUNT3-2ydTO4-6ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and LSU
StatisticMississippi StateLSU
Passing17-3219-32
Pass Yards214215
Rush Yards56177
Total Yards270392
Turnovers11
3rd Down1-147-16
Penalties5-357-56
Possession27:1632:44

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
12/24, 120 YDS
rushing
Ashton Shumpert
6 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Fred Ross
6 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
defense
LSU
passing
Danny Etling
19/30, 215 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Leonard Fournette
28 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Malachi Dupre
4 REC, 54 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.97

D.J. Chark run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 20

2nd & 14Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.19

Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19

3rd & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.30

Danny Etling run for 12 yds to the LSU 31

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson, broken up by Kendell Beckwith

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 1 yd to the LSU 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard Fournette

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.03

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Leonard Fournette pass incomplete to Travin Dural

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin Jeter

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +4.77

D.J. Chark 37 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.35

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the LSU 36

2nd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.90

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for no gain to the LSU 36

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 38

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.70

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. Chark

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, False Start (DeSean Smith) to the LSU 20

3rd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.44

Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 13 yds to the LSU 33

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 65 yds, downed at the MisSt 2

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Davon Godchaux and Lewis Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 1

4th & 11Punt+3 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 46

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leo Lewis) to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 18

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. Chark

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

Delahoussaye, Colby field goal attempt from 35 GOOD, clock 01:20, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing the kicker (Calvin, Johnathan) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Malachi Dupre pass incomplete to Danny Etling

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the MisSt 5

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.58

Leonard Fournette 5 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.64

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 30

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles

4th & 12Punt+6 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 55 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 6 yds to the LSU 18

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, False Start (Foster Moreau) to the LSU 13

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 20

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.10

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 5 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 35

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 35

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.31

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 4 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.21

Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 15 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Leonard Fournette 25 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye PAT blocked)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 27

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.91

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.50

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 30 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

LSU Penalty, Offside Defense (Davon Godchaux) to the LSU 35

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Ross, Fred, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Thomas, Dwayne) 15 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Fred Ross sacked by Frank Herron for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 27 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by MisSt Fred Ross , return for 0 yards

2nd & 17Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Senior) to the LSU 32

2nd & 22Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.79

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the LSU 23

3rd & 13Sack0 ydsPPA -0.90

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Davon Godchaux and Lewis Neal for 0 yards to the LSU 23

4th & 13Field Goal Good+41 ydsPPA +0.79

Westin Graves 41 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 25

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 29

3rd & 3Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.52

Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 18 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.23

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.87

Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 16 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jamoral Graham

4th & 5Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.79

Colby Delahoussaye 27 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 16

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.68

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 32 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the LSU 44

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 31 yds, downed at the LSU 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 8 yds to the LSU 21

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

LSU Penalty, False Start (Maea Teuhema) to the LSU 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin Jeter

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

4th & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.94

Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 34

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the LSU 29

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Donte Jackson

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.51

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.05

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Tre'Davious White and Davon Godchaux for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 29

2nd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the LSU 20

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA -0.19

Westin Graves 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.95

Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 28

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.97

Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offside Defense (Nick James) to the LSU 45

1st & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -3.72

Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Dezmond Harris, recovered by MisSt Gerri Green

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the LSU 47

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.88

Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the LSU 36

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Rickey Jefferson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Kevin Toliver II

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.30

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 36

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 29 yds, downed at the LSU 7

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 11

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 12

3rd & 5Penalty-6 yds

Etling, Danny pass complete to Dural, Travin for 19 yards to the LSU31 (Durr, Lashard), PENALTY LSU holding (Pocic, Ethan) 6 yards to the LSU6, NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.08

Danny Etling run for 8 yds to the LSU 14

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 6 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 44

3rd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.93

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds, downed at the LSU 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 3

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.69

Leonard Fournette run for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 8 yds to the LSU 33

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard Fournette

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.09

Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Foster Moreau) to the LSU 45

2nd & 22Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.38

Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 17 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -2.63

Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the MisSt 34 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Dezmond Harris, recovered by LSU Foster Moreau

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.89

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40

4th & 4Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.76

Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 24 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.31

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 11 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Greg Gilmore

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 30

2nd & 15Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.34

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 27 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Damian Williams 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.67

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 25 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Fred Ross 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 21

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.49

D.J. Chark run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 17

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre

4th & 12Punt+1 yds

Josh Growden punt for 61 yds , Fred Ross returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Donte Jackson

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Donald Gray

4th & 8Sack-12 ydsPPA +0.26

Damian Williams sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 17 Damian Williams fumbled, forced by Arden Key, recovered by LSU Davon Godchaux , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 19

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the MisSt 19

3rd & 12Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.58

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 23

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
31%
26 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
56%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
0%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
34%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
33%
15 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play