Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 3, 2016Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 13.7

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 85%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 3, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South AlabamaSouth Alabama
0071421
Mississippi StateMississippi State
7103020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-017-017-720-720-1420-21
Mississippi StateSouth Alabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAMSSAPUNT37ydPUNT623ydPUNT36ydPUNT2-14ydTD760ydMISS955ydTD680ydTO57ydFG1064ydMISS967ydEND1-2ydTD875ydFG1146ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT521ydTD999ydPUNT623ydPUNT38ydMISS830ydTD971ydMISS954ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Alabama and Mississippi State
StatisticSouth AlabamaMississippi State
Passing24-3420-31
Pass Yards285143
Rush Yards94239
Total Yards379382
Turnovers00
3rd Down5-142-9
Penalties8-575-41
Possession36:4123:19

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Alabama
passing
Dallas Davis
24/34, 285 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Tyreis Thomas
10 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Josh Magee
7 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Roman Buchanan
1 TFL, 1 PD
Mississippi State
passing
Damian Williams
20/28, 143 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Damian Williams
12 CAR, 93 YDS
receiving
Brandon Holloway
5 REC, 40 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 57 yds , Jaylan Daniels returns for no gain to the SAlab 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 3 yds to the SAlab 16

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.13

Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 10 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Tyreis Thomas run for 6 yds to the SAlab 32

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Tyreis Thomas run for 2 yds to the SAlab 34

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 1 yd to the SAlab 35

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Corliss Waitman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

4th & 4Blocked Punt+28 yds

Logan Cooke punt blocked by Nigel Lawrence, downed SALab 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 3 yds to the SAlab 42

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 37

3rd & 12Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.49

Dallas Davis sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 12 yards to the SAlab 25

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Corliss Waitman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.52

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 19 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Damian Williams pass complete to Keith Mixon for 8 yds to the SAlab 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.06

Damian Williams pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the SAlab 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Damian Williams pass complete to Jamal Couch for 6 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the SAlab 4

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Damian Williams pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.53

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 49

1st & 15Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.92

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 25 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27

2nd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for no gain to the MisSt 27

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.44

Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.46

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 17

2nd & 12Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.83

Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyreis Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCray

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Gavin Patterson 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+46 ydsPPA +3.45

Fred Ross run for 46 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.29

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Damian Williams pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the SAlab 18

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the SAlab 14

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.24

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 18 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.62

Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 36

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCray

3rd & 13Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.34

Dallas Davis sacked by J.T. Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 32

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Corliss Waitman punt for 33 yds , J.T. Gray returns for no gain to the MisSt 16 J.T. Gray fumbled, recovered by MisSt

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.81

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.26

Brandon Holloway run for 20 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Damian Williams run for 9 yds to the SAlab 25

2nd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 1 yd to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 25

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 5 yds to the SAlab 20

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA -0.19

Westin Graves 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tyreis Thomas run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.61

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 23 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.17

Dallas Davis run for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.45

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 24 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds to the MisSt 7

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 8

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+25 yds

Gavin Patterson 25 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 49

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Dallas Davis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.91

Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Tyreis Thomas run for 14 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tyreis Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 20 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 4Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.21

Damian Williams run for 23 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the SAlab 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.71

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 11 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Brandon Holloway

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Damian Williams run for 10 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.77

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SAlab 35

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe Myles

2nd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Damian Williams pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Good+48 ydsPPA +1.67

Westin Graves 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 2 yds to the SAlab 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Quinton Lane

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 22

3rd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.14

Dallas Davis sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 16

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Corliss Waitman punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.70

Damian Williams pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 34

2nd & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.97

Damian Williams pass complete to Justin Johnson for 18 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the SAlab 44

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, downed at the SAlab 1

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.04

Tyreis Thomas run for 37 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tyreis Thomas run for no gain to the SAlab 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 9 yds to the SAlab 47

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Deonta Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46

4th & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.60

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 6 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.23

Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 23 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (13 Yards) to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dallas Davis run for 4 yds to the MisSt 8

2nd & 6Penalty+4 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the MisSt 4

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.08

Tyreis Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe Myles

3rd & 9Penalty+7 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 48

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe Myles

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the SAlab 45

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, downed at the SAlab 9

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 8 yds to the SAlab 17

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh Magee

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Corliss Waitman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 41

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 41

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Keith Mixon run for 13 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44

2nd & 8Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.48

Damian Williams run for 23 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Damian Williams pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.50

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the SAlab 21

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.39

Damian Williams sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 29

4th & 18Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Westin Graves 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald Everett

3rd & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.10

Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 37 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Tyreis Thomas run for 8 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 31

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 27

3rd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.90

Dallas Davis run for 19 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.59

Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 12

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 8

3rd & 8Penalty+4 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the MisSt 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Dallas Davis pass complete to Gerald Everett for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 14 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the SAlab 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.42

Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the SAlab 32

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Damian Williams run for 13 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Damian Williams run for 6 yds to the SAlab 11

3rd & 2Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Westin Graves 28 yd FG MISSED SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (10 Yards) to the SAlab 10

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8

Situational Analysis

South Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
55%
11 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
20%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play