Skip to main content
← Back to GamesDec 6, 2015Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego State by 7.8

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 73%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Dec 6, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
737724
San Diego StateSan Diego State
01071027

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-710-1010-1717-1724-2427-24
San Diego StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSAFSDSAFAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFPUNT517ydPUNT31ydPUNT416ydTO517ydTD210ydTD873ydPUNT733ydPUNT617ydFG781ydFG758ydEND312ydTD1075ydTD1380ydPUNT414ydTD474ydTD556ydPUNT32ydPUNT36ydFG646ydPUNT35ydPUNT622ydDOWNS629yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and San Diego State
StatisticAir ForceSan Diego State
Passing5-119-14
Pass Yards35203
Rush Yards305233
Total Yards340436
Turnovers01
3rd Down2-115-13
Penalties2-95-39
Possession28:4431:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Karson Roberts
5/11, 35 YDS
rushing
Jacobi Owens
17 CAR, 156 YDS
receiving
Garrett Griffin
4 REC, 35 YDS
San Diego State
passing
Christian Chapman
9/14, 203 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Donnel Pumphrey
16 CAR, 90 YDS
receiving
Jemond Hazely
5 REC, 78 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 26

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.89

Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SDSt 43

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Christian Chapman run for no gain to the SDSt 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 5 yds to the SDSt 48

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 43

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 21

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 24

3rd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.31

Garrett Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 21

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 44

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.65

Donnel Pumphrey run for 30 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28

2nd & 27Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 12Penalty-15 yds

Chapman, Christian pass complete to Holder, Mikah for 28 yards to the AIRFORCE0, PENALTY SANDIEGOST illegal block 15 yards to the AIRFORCE43, NO PLAY.

3rd & 22Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 40

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.43

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 37

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett Brown

4th & 6Punt+52 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 52 yds , Mikah Holder returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 10 Mikah Holder fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacob Onyechi

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Timothy McVey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Chase Price run for 9 yds to the SDSt 36

2nd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Chase Price run for 13 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Chase Price run for 3 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the AFA 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.21

Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.35

Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.18

Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 24 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 6 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 44

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the SDSt 39

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Karson Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 41

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 27 yds, downed at the SDSt 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 5 yds to the SDSt 23

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.57

Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Chase Price run for 6 yds to the SDSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah Holder

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Daniel Brunskill

4th & 4Punt-2 yds

Tanner Blain punt for 51 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 16

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 18

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.10

Tyler Williams run for 11 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+65 ydsPPA +3.72

Jacobi Owens run for 65 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Karson Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 ydsPPA -1.08

Luke Strebel 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 35

2nd & 12Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.75

Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 40 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.18

Donnel Pumphrey run for 14 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the AFA 9

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Christian Chapman run for 4 yds to the AFA 5

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Jemond Hazely

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 ydsPPA -0.99

Donny Hageman 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.32

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 38

2nd & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.28

Jacobi Owens rush for 2 yards to the AF40, fumble forced by Alex Barrett, fumble by J. Owens recovered by AF Garrett Griffin at SDSU28, 1ST DOWN AF

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the SDSt 24

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Tyler Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 26

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 13

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.13

Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.35

Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 13 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Penalty+5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 45

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Chase Price run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Chase Price run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Chase Price run for no gain to the AFA 34

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the AFA 29

4th & 1Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.89

Dakota Gordon run for 23 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Chase Price run for 3 yds to the AFA 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Chase Price run for 2 yds to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.16

Tyler Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 39

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 26

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 25

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28

3rd & 8Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +4.22

Christian Chapman pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 44 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Rashaad Penny run for 28 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+54 yds

Karson Roberts run for 51 yds to the SANDIEGOST 5 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (3 Yards) to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Karson Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 1

3rd & 1Penalty-4 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the SDSt 5

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 2

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 30

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey

4th & 8Punt+3 yds

Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 3 yds to the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 31

4th & 4Punt-3 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 41 yds , Mikah Holder returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.83

Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 48 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.27

Chase Price run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 31

2nd & 16Penalty-11 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the AFA 42

2nd & 27Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey

3rd & 27Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.28

Christian Chapman pass complete to Eric Judge for 13 yds to the AFA 29

4th & 14Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +1.49

Donny Hageman 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for no gain to the AFA 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Strebel punt for 47 yds, downed at the SDSt 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Christian Chapman run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32

3rd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.95

Christian Chapman run for 13 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Chase Price run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 45

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tanner Blain punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Karson Roberts pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 4 yds to the SDSt 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Karson Roberts pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Karson Roberts pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
38%
21 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
24 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play