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← Back to GamesOct 3, 2015Week 5
Air ForceAir Force
11
-Final
33
NavyNavy

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 5.2

Home Win Probability

Navy 66%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 3, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
003811
NavyNavy
7146633

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-027-027-327-1130-1133-11
NavyAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFPUNT38ydTD567ydDOWNS1365ydPUNT32ydTO33ydTD1064ydTO1251ydPUNT3-5ydTO37ydPUNT3-11ydTO13ydTD468ydPUNT34ydEND13ydTD1275ydPUNT35ydPUNT39ydFG750ydPUNT3-4ydTD1153ydFG956ydPUNT67ydFG748ydEND416yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Navy
StatisticAir ForceNavy
Passing5-124-10
Pass Yards73117
Rush Yards204270
Total Yards277387
Turnovers40
3rd Down5-164-14
Penalties3-257-35
Possession27:3032:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Karson Roberts
5/12, 73 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Garrett Brown
9 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Garrett Brown
3 REC, 64 YDS
Navy
passing
Keenan Reynolds
4/10, 117 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Keenan Reynolds
24 CAR, 183 YDS
receiving
Craig Scott
1 REC, 33 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt+3 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Navy 33

1st & 10Rush+54 ydsPPA +2.89

Keenan Reynolds run for 54 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the AFA 9

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.62

Chris Swain run for 8 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Joey Gaston) to the AFA 6

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the AFA 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Chris Swain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 39

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.99

Garrett Brown run for 6 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the Navy 41

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Benton Washington run for 6 yds to the Navy 35

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

D.J. Johnson run for 11 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.26

Jacobi Owens run for 15 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the Navy 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Navy 1

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.21

Shayne Davern run for no gain to the Navy 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the Navy 4

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.09

Chris Swain run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 3

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett Brown

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -2.91

Karson Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by Navy Kwazel Bertrand

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman

3rd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.66

Keenan Reynolds pass complete to DeBrandon Sanders for 26 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.15

Keenan Reynolds run for 2 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +4.00

Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Thomas Wilson for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.82

Karson Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 48 Karson Roberts fumbled, forced by Will Anthony, recovered by AFA Karson Roberts

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 47

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.32

D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Garrett Brown run for 7 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Benton Washington run for 4 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Benton Washington run for 7 yds to the Navy 24

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Navy 22

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.24

Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -4.42

D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the Navy 16 D.J. Johnson fumbled, forced by Will Anthony, recovered by Navy Kwazel Bertrand

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Ben Tamburello) to the Navy 11

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Navy 12

2nd & 14Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.11

Keenan Reynolds sacked by Santo Coppola for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Chris Swain

4th & 15Punt+15 yds

Alex Barta punt for 45 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 15 yds to the Navy 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.36

Karson Roberts pass intercepted Brendon Clements return for no gain to the Navy 18

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the Navy 19

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Ben Tamburello) to the Navy 14

2nd & 14Rush-13 ydsPPA -0.19

Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 13 yards to the Navy 1 NAVY Penalty, intentional grounding (Keenan Reynolds) to the Navy 1

3rd & 27Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.00

Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the Navy 7

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.03

Garrett Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32 Garrett Brown fumbled, recovered by Navy D.J. Palmore

1st & 10Rush+67 ydsPPA +4.58

Keenan Reynolds run for 67 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Keenan Reynolds run for no gain to the AFA 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Demond Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 34

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.65

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 33

3rd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Karson Roberts pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 5 yds to the AFA 38

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Navy 18

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the Navy 21

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chris Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.82

DeBrandon Sanders run for 15 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, OF (Dexter Walker) to the Navy 49

1st & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.48

Quentin Ezell run for 6 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Dishan Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.29

Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

REYNOLDS, K pass incomplete to SANDERS, D, PENALTY AF pass interference (LINN, Hayes) 15 yards to the AF28, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Dishan Romine run for no gain to the AFA 25

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

REYNOLDS, K pass incomplete, PENALTY NAVY HL (GASTON, Joey) 10 yards to the AF35, NO PLAY.

3rd & 17Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.72

Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Dishan Romine for 31 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Quentin Ezell run for no gain to the AFA 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr., broken up by Dexter Walker

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the AFA 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Chris Swain run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Grebe PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 53 yds, downed at the Navy 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Keenan Reynolds pass incomplete to Dishan Romine

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Navy 21

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

DeBrandon Sanders run for 5 yds to the Navy 26

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Karson Roberts pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.55

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 34 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.35

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Quincy Adams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Karson Roberts pass complete to Tyler Williams for 4 yds to the Navy 21

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.66

Garrett Brown run for no gain to the Navy 21

4th & 6Field Goal Good+39 ydsPPA -0.12

Drew Oehrle 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the Navy 17

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

DeBrandon Sanders run for 2 yds to the Navy 19

3rd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.29

Keenan Reynolds sacked by Jesse Washington for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 11

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Alex Barta punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.86

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 18 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the Navy 25

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.42

Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Karson Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 19

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Garrett Brown run for 11 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the Navy 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (K. Roberts Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.78

Keenan Reynolds pass complete to Craig Scott for 33 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Chris Swain run for 2 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Chris Swain run for 6 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Quentin Ezell run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.58

Keenan Reynolds run for 8 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (Dishan Romine) to the AFA 30

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Keenan Reynolds run for 4 yds to the AFA 22

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Keenan Reynolds run for 3 yds to the AFA 19

4th & 4Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA -0.43

Austin Grebe 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 17

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 20

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.76

Garrett Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Quincy Adams

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (Karson Roberts) to the AFA 20

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Calvin Cass Jr. at the Navy 45

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Keenan Reynolds run for 9 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chris Swain run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +1.89

Keenan Reynolds run for 40 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Keenan Reynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Chris Swain run for 1 yd to the AFA 3

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Keenan Reynolds run for 1 yd to the AFA 2

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, delay of game (Keenan Reynolds) to the AFA 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 ydsPPA -0.79

Austin Grebe 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 39

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
27 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
12 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
28%
18 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play