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← Back to GamesOct 3, 2015Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Northwestern by 4

Home Win Probability

Northwestern 62%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 3, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MinnesotaMinnesota
00000
NorthwesternNorthwestern
3710727

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-013-020-027-0
NorthwesternMinnesota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINNORMINNORMINNORMINNORMINNORMINNORNORMINNORMINNORMINMINNORMINNORMINNORMINPUNT630ydFG1476ydDOWNS1137ydPUNT39ydTO32ydMISS719ydPUNT66ydPUNT612ydPUNT36ydTD15ydPUNT36ydEND22ydFG1969ydDOWNS631ydTD668ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT627ydTD49ydPUNT41ydPUNT39ydDOWNS625ydPUNT31ydPUNT617ydPUNT30ydDOWNS40yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Minnesota and Northwestern
StatisticMinnesotaNorthwestern
Passing15-3214-19
Pass Yards99128
Rush Yards74184
Total Yards173312
Turnovers20
3rd Down4-167-17
Penalties2-103-20
Possession25:5834:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Minnesota
passing
Mitch Leidner
10/21, 72 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Shannon Brooks
10 CAR, 33 YDS
receiving
K.J. Maye
4 REC, 39 YDS
Northwestern
passing
Clayton Thorson
14/19, 128 YDS
rushing
Justin Jackson
20 CAR, 120 YDS
receiving
Christian Jones
3 REC, 38 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 8 yds to the Minn 38

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.13

Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Matthew Harris

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 19

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Dan Vitale

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.89

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 16 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 3 yds to the Nwest 38

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.64

Justin Jackson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Minn 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Clayton Thorson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.17

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Minn 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.50

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for 19 yds to the Minn 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 11

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Minn 7

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 12

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 4 yds to the Minn 8

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 ydsPPA -0.97

Jack Mitchell 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 37

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Shannon Brooks run for 7 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.78

Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.56

Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Brandon Lingen) to the Nwest 37

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.14

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.89

Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 29 Clayton Thorson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton Thorson , return for no gain to the Nwest 29

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 10 yds to the Nwest 40

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 25 yds, downed at the Minn 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

KJ Maye run for 4 yds to the Minn 39

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.24

Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 37

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Matthew Harris return for no gain to the Minn 42

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Minn 40

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds to the Minn 35

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.90

Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Minn 29

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Minn 22

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.81

Clayton Thorson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 23

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Jack Mitchell 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 3 yds to the Minn 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 5 yds to the Minn 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.11

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brandon Lingen for 3 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Rodney Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 31

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 30

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney Smith

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.75

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Justin Jackson) to the Nwest 40

1st & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.26

Solomon Vault run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37

2nd & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40

3rd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Craig James at the Minn 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 11

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.18

Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 10

3rd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 17

4th & 4Punt+55 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 5 , Miles Shuler returns for 55 yds to the Minn 5

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 6 yds to the Minn 33

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 33

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Mitch Leidner run for no gain to the Minn 33

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 65 yds, downed at the Nwest 2

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.22

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 4

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Miles Shuler, broken up by Jalen Myrick

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, offside defense (Theiren Cockran) to the Nwest 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 9 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44 Justin Jackson fumbled, forced by Eric Murray, recovered by Nwest Christian Jones , return for no gain to the Nwest 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Warren Long run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.90

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Warren Long for 9 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Minn 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Clayton Thorson run for 6 yds to the Minn 26

3rd & 4Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.40

Clayton Thorson sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 29

4th & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Mike McHugh for 11 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Solomon Vault run for 8 yds to the Minn 10

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Minn 10

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

Clayton Thorson run for 4 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Warren Long run for 2 yds to the Minn 4

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Minn 4

3rd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Dan Vitale for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 ydsPPA -0.87

Jack Mitchell 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate Wozniak

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.90

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 23 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Miles Thomas

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 5 yds to the Nwest 34

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.76

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate Wozniak

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 31

2nd & 11Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.49

Justin Jackson run for 31 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.45

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Christian Jones for 16 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.13

Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Minn 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 27

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Eric Carter

3rd & 13Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 1 yd to the Minn 28

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 31

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 40

2nd & 1Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.70

Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Warren Long run for no gain to the Minn 35

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Warren Long run for 3 yds to the Minn 32

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Thorson, C. pass incomplete, PENALTY NU holding (Frazier, Matt) 10 yards to the MINN42, NO PLAY.

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Mike McHugh

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 38 yds, downed at the Minn 4

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to KJ Maye

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brandon Lingen, broken up by Matthew Harris

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Mitch Leidner pass complete to KJ Maye for 12 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+13 ydsPPA -0.42

Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 1 yard Mitch Leidner fumbled, forced by Tyler Lancaster, recovered by Nwest Anthony Walker , return for 13 yds, (Jack Mitchell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Demry Croft run for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Demry Croft pass incomplete to KJ Maye

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Demry Croft pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.54

Demry Croft sacked by Deonte Gibson for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 26

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Miles Shuler at the Nwest 32

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 32

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Solomon Vault run for 9 yds to the Nwest 41

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Solomon Vault run for no gain to the Nwest 41

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 24

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 31

2nd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Demry Croft pass complete to KJ Maye for 16 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Demry Croft pass complete to Nick Hart for 4 yds to the Nwest 49

2nd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Demry Croft sacked by Deonte Gibson and Tyler Lancaster for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 49

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Nick VanHoose

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Demry Croft pass incomplete to Eric Carter, broken up by Nick VanHoose

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.97

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Clayton Thorson

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Warren Long run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Minn 47

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Demry Croft pass complete to Nick Hart for 5 yds to the Minn 27

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.36

Demry Croft run for 7 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Demry Croft run for 3 yds to the Minn 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Demry Croft pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Demry Croft pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Peter Mortell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Nwest 17

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Auston Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 18

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Auston Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19

3rd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.17

Auston Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 17

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KJ Maye at the Minn 38

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.58

Demry Croft pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 35

2nd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Demry Croft pass complete to Melvin Holland Jr for 5 yds to the Minn 40

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.74

Demry Croft sacked by Joseph Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 35

4th & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.22

Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 38

Situational Analysis

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
24 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
56%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
32%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
45%
11 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play