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← Back to GamesSep 19, 2015Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 9.7

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 77%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 19, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
707721
Michigan StateMichigan State
14147035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-721-728-735-735-1435-21
Michigan StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFMSAFAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSAFMSPUNT3-4ydTD959ydTD537ydTD1175ydTD1087ydPUNT45ydMISS727ydPUNT37ydTD864ydEND17ydTD875ydTD680ydPUNT35ydTO315ydPUNT3-7ydDOWNS1184ydDOWNS1252ydTO950ydPUNT38ydTD487ydEND3-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Michigan State
StatisticAir ForceMichigan State
Passing6-915-23
Pass Yards149247
Rush Yards27977
Total Yards428324
Turnovers30
3rd Down3-97-14
Penalties7-956-38
Possession26:5933:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Karson Roberts
6/9, 149 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jacobi Owens
14 CAR, 72 YDS
receiving
Jalen Robinette
2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Michigan State
passing
Connor Cook
15/23, 247 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Madre London
17 CAR, 40 YDS
receiving
Aaron Burbridge
8 REC, 156 YDS, 3 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.05

Karson Roberts run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 22 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacobi Owens

3rd & 13Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.11

Karson Roberts pass complete to Bryan Driskell for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.23

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.51

Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 12 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Madre London run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Madre London run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Madre London run for 9 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Madre London run for 1 yd to the AFA 15

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.18

Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Benton Washington run for 9 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Benton Washington run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 45

1st & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.48

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+64 ydsPPA -3.86

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds D.J. Johnson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Rj Williamson , return for 64 yds, (Michael Geiger KICK)

2nd & 13Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 8Rush-14 ydsPPA -1.62

Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 40 AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the AFA 25

2nd & 22Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.44

Benton Washington run for 12 yds to the AFA 37

3rd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +3.17

Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.91

Shayne Davern run for 22 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 17

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.10

D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Benton Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 11 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY AIRFORCE roughing passer (Deeks, Lochlin) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Burbridge, Aaron, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference 15 yards to the AIRFORCE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.66

Connor Cook sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 43

2nd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Connor Cook run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Connor Cook run for 4 yds to the AFA 30

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.26

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Benton Washington run for 1 yd to the AFA 9

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

Garrett Brown run for 8 yds to the AFA 17 AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (-8 Yards) to the AFA 9

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 12

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 13

4th & 5Punt+1 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 33 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 1 yd to the AFA 45

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. Shelton

3rd & 11Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.13

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 26 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

DeAnthony Arnett run for 2 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Connor Cook pass incomplete

4th & 8Blocked Field Goal+35 yds

Michael Geiger 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by David Harris

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 24

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jalen Robinette run for 3 yds to the AFA 27

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 36

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.51

LJ Scott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.98

Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the AFA 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.29

Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.67

Connor Cook sacked by David Harris and TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 47 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Connor Cook) to the AFA 47

1st & 19Penalty+15 yds

Cook, Connor pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the AIRFORCE48 (Byers, Samuel;Onyechi, Jacob), PENALTY AIRFORCE personal foul 15 yards to the AIRFORCE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 32 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 23

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.02

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.67

Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 19 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Madre London run for 2 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 8Penalty0 yds

Cook, Connor pass incomplete to Arnett, DeAnthony, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding off-setting, PENALTY AIRFORCE Roughing Passer off-setting, NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Connor Cook pass complete to DeAnthony Arnett for 8 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Madre London run for 11 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Karson Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.59

Jacobi Owens run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Shayne Davern run for 9 yds to the MchSt 41

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 38 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Felton Davis III

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -3.46

Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47 Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by MchSt Andrew Dowell , return for 2 yds to the MchSt 47

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 46

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Madre London run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.02

Connor Cook sacked by Grant Ross and Connor Healy for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 40

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 8

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Benton Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 7

2nd & 11Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.36

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 32 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Benton Washington run for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42

2nd & 9Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.48

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 24 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the MchSt 12

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the MchSt 2

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 3

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the MchSt 3

4th & 3Rush-5 ydsPPA -4.08

Jalen Robinette run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 8 yds to the MchSt 16

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Gerald Holmes run for no gain to the MchSt 16

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.44

Gerald Holmes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Gerald Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.75

Connor Cook pass complete to R.J. Shelton for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Damion Terry run for 5 yds to the MchSt 46

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Madre London run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.49

Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron Burbridge

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.81

R.J. Shelton run for 8 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Madre London run for 1 yd to the AFA 40

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.05

Connor Cook run for no gain to the AFA 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Jacobi Owens run for 13 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jacobi Owens

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Devin Rushing run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40

3rd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.39

Devin Rushing run for 14 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.67

Devin Rushing run for 20 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 8

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Tyler Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 10

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return-9 ydsPPA -3.92

Karson Roberts pass intercepted Rj Williamson return for 9 yds to the MchSt 17

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

LJ Scott run for 5 yds to the MchSt 22

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 22

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Madre London run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25

4th & 2Punt+1 yds

Jake Hartbarger punt for 51 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 1 yd to the AFA 26 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the AFA 13

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Karson Roberts run for 11 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.38

Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 12 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +1.88

Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 44 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty+3 yds

Roberts, Karson pass incomplete to Robinette, Jalen, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Cox, Demetrious) 3 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Madre London run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Madre London run for 4 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.71

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 45

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
57%
28 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
28 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays